Archive | January, 2013

TD Bising Afternoon Update | January 12, 2013

Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Depression (Bagyong Bising).

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This weak cyclone is moving just east of Luzon but not really bringing any significant impacts in the Philippines. However, some cities along the coast have seen up to 200mm of rain since yesterday. Cities across Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, and parts of the Bicol Region reported 50 to 200mm with some minor flooding as well. Thankfully, much of the rains are forecast to be much lighter and their coverage smaller. 2-Day Rainfall Forecast below shows where we expect the heaviest rains to fall in relation to the track of Bising. As you can see, amounts should be lighter across Luzon as much of the clouds are located over the Philippine Sea.

2-Day Rainfall and TD Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

2 day rainfall forecast 1

TD Bising is forecast to continue moving northward and then turn northeastward away from Luzon. It is forecast to quickly transition into an extra-tropical system by Monday and could even become an intense mid-latitude cyclone as it moves south of Japan by the middle part of next week. Check out Robert Speta’s update on this possibility.

-WxCaster PAT

LPA near Philippines Update | January 11, 2013

The Low Pressure Area near Mindanao, also dubbed as Invest 94W, is showing signs of improvement and could even be upgraded to a depression by JTWC and PAGASA in the coming days. In fact, Japan Meteorological Agency has already upgraded this disturbance to a depression since yesterday.

LPA 94W was last located approximately 320km east of Surigao City and is moving north northwestward at about 25kph. Maximum winds near the center are estimated to be between 30 to 50kph. The recent improvements in the organization have prompted Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to upgrade 94W’s chances to ‘MEDIUM’.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Much of the convection associated with 94W is located north of the circulation center. These clouds have been impacting Eastern Visayas and Mindanao since yesterday with some areas already reporting up to 80mm of rain in just 24 hours. Another 100 to even 200mm of rain could fall this weekend. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)

2-Day Rainfall and LPA Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

The map above combines our two day rainfall forecast as well as the potential track for this tropical disturbance. As we’ve said before, the chances of development has increased and we could definitely see this system being upgraded to a depression both by PAGASA and JTWC in the next two days. Latest computer models show the system tracking generally northward. It will be tracking near the eastern coasts of the Philippines and could brush the island of Catanduanes.

As for the rains, up to 100 to even 200mm could fall in some areas throughout this weekend. The heaviest rains could fall across the Bicol Region and parts of Eastern Visayas. Southern Luzon including Metro Manila could also see some light rains over the next few days especially the provinces of Quezon, and Aurora. Always make sure to tune in to the latest TV and Radio reports for any warnings and forecasts from your official agencies.

As always, we’re gonna continue following this system closely and give updates as necessary. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT


Tropics Update | January 10, 2013

Remnants of Tropical Depression Sonamu continues to linger in the South China Sea bringing scattered light rains in the region. Meanwhile, a new batch of widespread rains is beginning to move into the Philippines today bringing the threat of heavy precipitation over the coming days.

IR Image from NOAA

Invest 94W continues to persist just east of Mindanao. It’s circulation remains intact but isn’t really showing any significant improvements. However, as we have been saying for days now, this LPA will continue to bring rains across Mindanao. To the north, strong convergence is also enhancing rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Visayas. The combined effects of these two systems could potentially bring heavy rains across the Philippines over the next few days.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Rainfall forecast above (derived from the computer models) shows where the heaviest rains are expected to occur; we have also outlined the possible track of Low Pressure Area 94W. Northern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, and the Bicol Region could see up to 200mm over the next two days bringing the possibility of flooding and landslides to vulnerable areas. By this weekend, Eastern Luzon could also see its share of light to moderate rains.

In terms of cyclone development, Invest 94W is in an area of somewhat favorable conditions. Some computer models insist on intensifying this disturbance into a weak cyclone. JTWC has also raised “LOW” probability for this system. Right now, though, we’re not expecting abrupt development, but that chances could definitely increase as we move into the weekend. As always, we urge you to continue watching the news and checking the official agencies for warnings and forecasts for your area. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Tropics Afternoon Update | January 8, 2013

Here is our latest Video Update on the Tropics.

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Sonamu has now weakened to a Tropical Depression and could fully dissipate by tomorrow. Its remnants are forecast to move into the island of Borneo in two days and could bring light rains across the region.

IR Image from NRLMRY showing the locations of the system we are currently monitoring:

In the Philippines, a low pressure area which has actually been upgraded to a Tropical Depression by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (Invest 94W) continues to bring light to moderate rains across Mindanao and Visayas. The chances of development are very low now but the rains will probably remain for a few more days. Latest rainfall forecast below (derived from a computer model) shows the areas that could possible see rains over the next two days. Eastern sections are urged to continue monitoring the weather for the possibility of heavy rains, flash floods, and landslides.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

For the latest rainfall forecast and radar images in the Philippines, click HERE (ClimateX PH)

Finally, a tropical disturbance moving south of Guam could bring another round of rains to the Philippines in 3 days’ time. Some computer models are hinting at a possible cyclone development but the chances of it are still low at this time. Nevertheless, we’ll continue to keep a close eye on this system.

-WxCaster PAT