Tropics Afternoon Update | January 6, 2013

Aside from Tropical Storm Sonamu in the South China Sea, we are also watching a developing low pressure area just east of the Philippines.

IR Image from NOAA showing the locations of the systems we are closely monitoring

Tropical Storm Sonamu continues to struggle due to the strong wind shear across the South China Sea. The low-level center is partially exposed as the convection is being blown off to the northwest. This is leading to some light rains impacting Southern Vietnam; nothing too heavy in the forecast though (around 30mm). Sonamu will continue to weaken and could be downgraded into a Tropical Depression by as early as tomorrow evening. At this rate, the chances of Sonamu directly impacting Malaysia is becoming less likely.

Meanwhile, Invest 94W continues to slowly consolidate over the Western Pacific. This LPA was last located approximately 680km southeast of Davao City. The low-level center is still somewhat elongated but has shown improvement from yesterday. Some computer models are still suggesting of some strengthening and the Japan Meteorological Agency is actually forecasting a Tropical Depression in the next 2 days.

Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Even if it doesn’t develop, Invest 94W is forecast to bring rains across Mindanao and even into Eastern Visayas over the next few days. Rainfall forecast above (derived from a computer model) shows where the heaviest rains will fall in the next two days. Parts of Northern and Eastern Mindanao should remain vigilant as the possibility of flooding and landslides remain.

-WxCaster PAT


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