Tropics Update | January 10, 2013

Remnants of Tropical Depression Sonamu continues to linger in the South China Sea bringing scattered light rains in the region. Meanwhile, a new batch of widespread rains is beginning to move into the Philippines today bringing the threat of heavy precipitation over the coming days.

IR Image from NOAA

Invest 94W continues to persist just east of Mindanao. It’s circulation remains intact but isn’t really showing any significant improvements. However, as we have been saying for days now, this LPA will continue to bring rains across Mindanao. To the north, strong convergence is also enhancing rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Visayas. The combined effects of these two systems could potentially bring heavy rains across the Philippines over the next few days.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Rainfall forecast above (derived from the computer models) shows where the heaviest rains are expected to occur; we have also outlined the possible track of Low Pressure Area 94W. Northern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, and the Bicol Region could see up to 200mm over the next two days bringing the possibility of flooding and landslides to vulnerable areas. By this weekend, Eastern Luzon could also see its share of light to moderate rains.

In terms of cyclone development, Invest 94W is in an area of somewhat favorable conditions. Some computer models insist on intensifying this disturbance into a weak cyclone. JTWC has also raised “LOW” probability for this system. Right now, though, we’re not expecting abrupt development, but that chances could definitely increase as we move into the weekend. As always, we urge you to continue watching the news and checking the official agencies for warnings and forecasts for your area. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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