LPA near Philippines Update | January 11, 2013

The Low Pressure Area near Mindanao, also dubbed as Invest 94W, is showing signs of improvement and could even be upgraded to a depression by JTWC and PAGASA in the coming days. In fact, Japan Meteorological Agency has already upgraded this disturbance to a depression since yesterday.

LPA 94W was last located approximately 320km east of Surigao City and is moving north northwestward at about 25kph. Maximum winds near the center are estimated to be between 30 to 50kph. The recent improvements in the organization have prompted Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) to upgrade 94W’s chances to ‘MEDIUM’.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Much of the convection associated with 94W is located north of the circulation center. These clouds have been impacting Eastern Visayas and Mindanao since yesterday with some areas already reporting up to 80mm of rain in just 24 hours. Another 100 to even 200mm of rain could fall this weekend. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)

2-Day Rainfall and LPA Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

The map above combines our two day rainfall forecast as well as the potential track for this tropical disturbance. As we’ve said before, the chances of development has increased and we could definitely see this system being upgraded to a depression both by PAGASA and JTWC in the next two days. Latest computer models show the system tracking generally northward. It will be tracking near the eastern coasts of the Philippines and could brush the island of Catanduanes.

As for the rains, up to 100 to even 200mm could fall in some areas throughout this weekend. The heaviest rains could fall across the Bicol Region and parts of Eastern Visayas. Southern Luzon including Metro Manila could also see some light rains over the next few days especially the provinces of Quezon, and Aurora. Always make sure to tune in to the latest TV and Radio reports for any warnings and forecasts from your official agencies.

As always, we’re gonna continue following this system closely and give updates as necessary. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

 

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