Archive | January, 2013

Tropics Afternoon Update | January 8, 2013

Here is our latest Video Update on the Tropics.

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Sonamu has now weakened to a Tropical Depression and could fully dissipate by tomorrow. Its remnants are forecast to move into the island of Borneo in two days and could bring light rains across the region.

IR Image from NRLMRY showing the locations of the system we are currently monitoring:

In the Philippines, a low pressure area which has actually been upgraded to a Tropical Depression by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (Invest 94W) continues to bring light to moderate rains across Mindanao and Visayas. The chances of development are very low now but the rains will probably remain for a few more days. Latest rainfall forecast below (derived from a computer model) shows the areas that could possible see rains over the next two days. Eastern sections are urged to continue monitoring the weather for the possibility of heavy rains, flash floods, and landslides.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

For the latest rainfall forecast and radar images in the Philippines, click HERE (ClimateX PH)

Finally, a tropical disturbance moving south of Guam could bring another round of rains to the Philippines in 3 days’ time. Some computer models are hinting at a possible cyclone development but the chances of it are still low at this time. Nevertheless, we’ll continue to keep a close eye on this system.

-WxCaster PAT

Tropics Afternoon Update | January 6, 2013

Aside from Tropical Storm Sonamu in the South China Sea, we are also watching a developing low pressure area just east of the Philippines.

IR Image from NOAA showing the locations of the systems we are closely monitoring

Tropical Storm Sonamu continues to struggle due to the strong wind shear across the South China Sea. The low-level center is partially exposed as the convection is being blown off to the northwest. This is leading to some light rains impacting Southern Vietnam; nothing too heavy in the forecast though (around 30mm). Sonamu will continue to weaken and could be downgraded into a Tropical Depression by as early as tomorrow evening. At this rate, the chances of Sonamu directly impacting Malaysia is becoming less likely.

Meanwhile, Invest 94W continues to slowly consolidate over the Western Pacific. This LPA was last located approximately 680km southeast of Davao City. The low-level center is still somewhat elongated but has shown improvement from yesterday. Some computer models are still suggesting of some strengthening and the Japan Meteorological Agency is actually forecasting a Tropical Depression in the next 2 days.

Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Even if it doesn’t develop, Invest 94W is forecast to bring rains across Mindanao and even into Eastern Visayas over the next few days. Rainfall forecast above (derived from a computer model) shows where the heaviest rains will fall in the next two days. Parts of Northern and Eastern Mindanao should remain vigilant as the possibility of flooding and landslides remain.

-WxCaster PAT


Tropical Storm Sonamu Afternoon Update | January 5, 2013

This is our latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Sonamu and also on the possible tropical threats to the Philippines for next week.

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Sonamu has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The storm continues to move across the South China Sea staying south of Vietnam. While the system has intensified, it is still encountering moderate to strong wind shear which is leaving the low-level center partially exposed. Heavy rains and strong winds remain offshore although light rains may affect Southern Vietnam tonight and into tomorrow. The threat of high waves spawned by Sonamu’s circulation also exist along the coast.

Sonamu is forecast to begin weakening tomorrow (Sunday) or by Monday as it heads towards the Malay Peninsula. It should weaken to a Tropical Depression before making landfall near Thailand/Malaysia border.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Meanwhile, the Tropics remains very active with two potential disturbances brewing along the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The satellite image above shows the location of those disturbances (along with Sonamu). The trail of convection running eastward from the Philippines is the ITCZ. While there isn’t any imminent development, computer models continue to hint of a cyclone developing by early next week which could pose a threat to the Philippines.

-WxCaster PAT