Archive | July, 2013

Low Pressure Area in the Visayas bringing heavy rains to Philippines

We’re monitoring a low pressure area (LPA), labelled as 91W by JTWC, near Tacloban City, Philippines.  Near-term threat will be heavy rain and thunderstorms for a majority of the Philippines with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides.  PAGASA is also issuing weather advisories for the LPA due to these threats.  Dynamical models suggest this system will continue drifting northwest of the next couple of days.  Once the disturbance enters the South China Sea, the possibility of organization exists and the GFS hints that this may develop into some sort of a tropical cyclone within the next three days.

Below in today’s Worldwide Tropical Outlook, I talk briefly on this area and other global tropical threats.

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New Tropical Depression forms near the Philippines while continued showers affect SE China

In today’s Worldwide Tropical Outlook, we’re still monitoring the tropical disturbance (Invest 90W) E of Hainan Province in China which is spreading heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern Vietnam and southeastern China.  (Starts at 11:38 in the video below)

The real story for the Western Pacific is a newly-formed tropical depression southeast of Mindanao.  Initial model runs suggest a northerly track toward Japan over the next few days, but the cyclone appears to pose little threat to significant strengthening.  Once PAGASA coins the system as a tropical depression, it will be named Jolina.  The next JMA-name will be Jebi, which will be issued once the cyclone reaches tropical storm-strength.

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Weak Disturbance Spreading Heavy Showers Across SE Asia.

We’re still monitoring the progress of a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea–Invest 98W–about 455 km southwest of Hong Kong.  While the system shows no significant threat toward development, the main cause of worry will be heavy showers and thunderstorms over portions of Laos, Vietnam, and southern China… a locations still battling from precipitation from tropical cyclones earlier in the month.

A short discussion about the disturbance is available in today’s Worldwide Tropical Outlook… starting after 7:20 in the video.

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A pair of disturbances in the Western Pacific, but no significant threats for development

Two tropical depressions are being tracked by the Naval Research Lab — Invests 98W and 99W.  Neither disturbance is featured in JTWC’s outlook.

98W, a weak circulation east of Ho Chi Minh City, shows a slight chance at developing over the next few days.  Dynamic models suggest it will follow a track similar to the tropical depression late last week.  Significant development is not expected and the main threat remains increased rainfall along Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.

99W, on the other hand, is a vigorous tropical wave embedded in the ITCZ and moving quickly toward the west.  The wave is currently SE of Chuuk and SW of Pohnpei and near-term development is not expected until the wave can slow down and/or detach itself from the ITCZ.  Dynamic models suggest this is unlikely.

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