Archive | August, 2013

Tropical Storm Trami (Maring) beginning the recurve west

GFS OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY EVENING

GFS OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY EVENING

Tropical Storm Trami (Philippines name Maring) is now beginning to track north-northeast as it transitions from a eastward moving cyclone to a westward moving cyclone.  Meanwhile, Trami is enhancing the Southwest Monsoon, bring heavy rainfall and flooding throughout portions of Luzon.  Media reports from the Philippines are indicating at least three deaths have occurred from the cyclone as well as several injuries, mainly due to vehicular accidents.  As Trami moves away from the Philippines, it would threaten the Miyako

Trami Satellite

and Yaeyama Islands as possibly  a severe tropical storm before threatening Taipei, potentially as a typhoon.  Atmospheric conditions favor slow strengthening, but the models lose confidence as it approaches Taiwan–this may be significant as the strongest winds are expected to be on the north side of Trami.  A slight shift toward the north would save Taipei from a landfall and typhoon-force winds.  By Thursday, however, Trami should make landfall Fujian or Zhejiang province in eastern China.

 

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Four Tropical Cyclones Meandering in the Western Pacific

Today’s 06Z JMA Warning and Summary map was rather unusual:  four tropical cyclones were active across the Western Pacific.

First, Tropical Depression Utor–yes, the same typhoon than made landfall in China’s Guangdong province on Wednesday–continues to dump heavy rain in portions of southern China and northern Vietnam.  Observations across Guangdong, Hunan, and Guangxi provinces have reported rainfall between 50-90 mm (2.0-3.5 inches).  Of course, this area has been impacted by Bebinca in June, Rumbia in early July, a depression in mid July, Jebi in late July, Mangkhut in early August, and now Utor for the past 5 days.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Utor will be moving anywhere too quickly.  Models suggest that Utor will continue to sit and spin over this region for a few more days before dissipating, dumping yet more rainfall to this region.

Second, Tropical Depression “B”–also numbered 13W by JTWC–is fizzling out SE of Shanghai.  JMA and JTWC have both stopped issuing advisories on the depression.  JMA has relegated the system to the Warning and Summary bulletin.  Current satellite shows a naked swirl with the majority of the convection to the northwest of the center.  This system should be moving inland over the next day as it tracks west and west-southwest, bringing rain showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds to portions of eastern China.

Third, Tropical Storm Trami–numbered 12W by JTWC–is located about 640 km south of Okinawa.  Trami, going by Maring in the Philippines, is spreading showers and thunderstorms over northern Luzon.  Trami is expected to curve northward before moving west toward Taiwan.  Models suggest it should stay south of Okinawa, but it may bring increased showers as it passes.  Right now, the majority of the models hint of Trami affecting Taipei before making landfall in eastern China.  At this time, I’m not expecting a significant change in strength either way.

Fourth, Severe Tropical Storm Pewa–numbered 01C by JTWC and CPHC–crossed the International Dateline earlier this evening.  Honolulu’s CPHC gave the hand-off to Tokyo’s JMA after Pewa crossed 180°.  Models are indicating that we’ll be talking about Pewa for several more days and it continues to intensify.  Right now, as it tracks toward the northwest, the only land threat is Wake Island.  High pressure should force a recurvature, keeping Guam and the Mariana Islands out of the threat.  For fun… looking at the extended GFS shows the Pewa, albeit weak, could be approaching northern Japan (likely as an extratropical low) during the first week of September.  We shall see…

 

Below is a video update recapping the WPAC quartet along with other activity in the CPAC and Atlantic.

 

[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6dbIyyu9R0″%5D

Typhoon Utor Early-Evening Update | August 13, 2013

Watch our latest video update for more in-depth analysis on Typhoon Utor as well as a brief discussion on a possible cyclone formation near Taiwan by this weekend (first mentioned by Meteorologist Robert Speta).

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Typhoon Utor continues to move towards Guangdong Province today and is already starting to impact the region. Utor was last located approximately 360km south southwest of Hong Kong or about 420km southeast of Zhanjiang. Latest JMA Analysis puts the maximum sustained winds at 150kph with gusts of up to 210kph. It is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, Hong Kong Observatory has kept the Strong Wind Signal No. 3 in effect. Meanwhile, the China Meteorological Administration has issued a Red Typhoon Warning–the highest warning for typhoons issued by CMA. Residents along the projected path of Utor should remain vigilant and to always monitor the developments and always listen to your local officials for the latest warnings!

Radar Image from CMA

Latest radar image from China Meteorological Administration shows the extent of Utor’s rain bands. Some of these rains have extended as far north as the provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi, and Fujian. Furthermore, rain bands are also beginning to move into Leizhou Peninsula and parts of Hainan. Hong Kong isn’t spared by the rains either with as much as 100mm falling today in some locations. For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE.

IR Image from FNMOC

081313 0932z ir analysis

Typhoon Utor is forecast to make landfall in Guangdong Province near the cities of Maoming and Zhanjiang by tomorrow afternoon between 2pm and 6pm local time. Utor should, then, rapidly weaken as it tracks further inland. Strong damaging winds are possible near the coast and heavy rains of up to 200mm should be expected as well. Even though Utor is weakening at landfall, it is still a dangerous typhoon and we hope you have heeded the warnings of your local government.

Stay safe!

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) Early Evening Update | August 12, 2013

Here is our latest Video Update on Typhoon Utor:

[youtube_sc url=”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeDbdiUu0e8″%5D

Typhoon Utor (Bagyong Labuyo) is beginning to regain intensity as it moves into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. The center of the storm was last located approximately 260km northwest of Dagupan City or about 410km northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to about 130ph with gusts of up to 185kph according to JMA’s latest analysis. Typhoon Utor is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm this morning, here are the latest Signal Warnings from PAGASA:

Signal #2: Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union , and Pangasinan.

Signal #1: Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Ilocos Norte, Pampanga, Bataan, and Zambales.

Areas under Signal #2 should continue to have winds of up to 100kph over the next 3 to 6 hours but should begin to die down as the night goes on. Meanwhile, winds of up to 60kph could linger over areas under Signal #1 but is also expected to weaken by tonight.

The Hong Kong Observatory has also issued a Standby Signal No. 1 as Utor moves within 800km of the area. HKO is saying they could raise it to Signal No. 3 by tonight as the system moves closer to the area. We aren’t expecting Utor to make landfall in Hong Kong, however its outer rain bands could bring light rains and gusty winds in the region by tomorrow and into Wednesday.

Subic Radar Image (ClimateX PH)

subic radar 2

Meanwhile, light to moderate rains continue across the western portions of Luzon particularly across the provinces of Zambales, Bataan, and Pampanga. Up to 50mm could still fall over the next few hours but weather across the region should begin to improve by early tomorrow morning. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts for your area, please click HERE (ClimateX PH).

Project NOAH 24-Hr Rainfall Accumulation

noah rainfall

We received numerous reports of heavy rains in the region. Many areas got as much as 400mm of rain today which caused numerous landslides and flashfloods. The map above shows the rainfall in the past 24 hours and you can see the extent of the heavy rainfall accumulations which matches up nicely with our rainfall forecast yesterday.

Typhoon Utor is forecast to re-intensify slightly as it moves across the warm waters of South China Sea.  It is then forecast to make landfall in Guangdong Province in Southern China by as early as Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rains and strong winds is expected to affect the region including Hainan and even far east into Hong Kiong.

If you have your own images and reports, feel free to share them to us by uploading it to our website. You can also go to our Facebook Page and share your images there. Thank you!

-WxCaster PAT