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Potential storm early next week threatens Japan, Taiwan

Today, we continue to monitor the progress on Tropical Disturbance 95W, located about 200 km northeast of Saipan.  Although multispectral and microwave satellite imagery indicates it remains an open trough of lower pressure, forecast models suggest that it will steadily develop throughout this week and into the weekend.  GFS remains insistent that 95W will eventually develop into Typhoon Man-yi.  Unfortunately, the spread on forecast track and forecast intensity remains wide across all the models.  While GFS intensifies the system into a strong typhoon, NAVGEM picks it up as a tropical storm.  Additionally, the tracks have varied from the Kanto Plain, across southern Japan, Okinawa, Taiwan, and even northern Luzon.  This is typical of a developing trough since the models have difficulty initializing on an area of low pressure that does not exist.  Future model trends should help build the forecast confidence and over the next couple days we will see who may be threatened early next week by this system.

 

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