Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi threatens Japan with gusty winds and flooding rains

As of 09Z, 14 September 2013, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi is positioned about 825 km east of Okinawa or about 1155 km south-southwest of Tokyo, moving toward the northwest at 14 kt.  This motion is expected to continue throughout the night before shifting toward the north as the subtropical ridge currently positioned over Japan retreats in advance of an approaching cold front in northeastern China.  As the cold front moves toward Japan, this will draw Man-yi toward the north and eventually toward the northeast by Sunday evening, setting the stage for gusty winds and heavy rains for a majority of Honshu to begin the week.  Current JMA and JTWC wind forecasts bring storm-force winds (50 kt) to the Kanto Plain and the Tokyo area Monday morning.  Currently, Yokosuka, Atsugi, Yokota, Camp Zama, and Camp Fuji are expecting 50 kt-winds, with gusts up toward 65 kt as Man-yi passes through Monday morning.  As a result, those locations are current under Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) 3.  In addition to the high winds, flooding rains are expected.  Between Nagoya and Osaka, rainfall totals of up to 350 mm are expected through Monday morning.  This heavy rain will make its way northeastward through Aomori Prefecture Monday evening and Tuesday morning, bringing rainfall of 100 – 150 mm to eastern parts of Japan by midday Tuesday.


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