Sunday evening update on Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi as flooding rains dump on Japan

9 pm (JST) Sunday evening, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi remains about 245 km south-southwest of Higashimuro, Japan, or about 645 km southwest of central Tokyo.  The eastward shift has occurred and the current motion is toward the north-northeast at 15 kt.  A shift more toward the northeast should occur overnight as a cold front crosses the Sea of Japan and interacts with Man-yi.  JMA and JTWC both suggest landfall should occur around 00Z… or just prior on Monday morning.  As landfall occurs, significantly high shear with affect Man-yi as the cyclone transitions into a fall-like midlatitude front.  While gusty winds will occur, espeically in and around the Tokyo area, heavy rainfall will affect much of Honshu.  Model guidance is suggesting 200-250 mm (8-10″) of rainfall could fall in western Tokyo through Tuesday morning, with rainfall totals of up to 150 mm (6″) in portions of northern Honshu.  These rains will likely cause flooding conditions and possible landslides, especially in higher terrain.[youtube_sc url=””%5D


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