Archive | September, 2013

Severe Tropical Storm Usagi (Odette) Morning Update

Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded Usagi into a Severe Tropical Storm as the system continues to intensify across the Philippine Sea. STS Usagi (Bagyong Odette) was last located approximately 1,050km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 95kph with gusts of up to 130kph based on JMA’s latest warning.

PAGASA has not issued any signal warnings yet across the Philippines due to the distance of the storm. However, we expect Usagi to start affecting eastern portions of Luzon by tomorrow. Furthermore, Usagi will start to enhance the Southwest Monsoon which could trigger rain showers across parts of the Philippines beginning tomorrow and could last through the weekend.

VIS Image from NOAA

091713 2332z ir analysis

Latest satellite shot across the Western Pacific shows the improving STS Usagi as well as a low pressure area just east of Vietnam. STS Usagi looks more symmetrical this morning with good convection and poleward outflow. The core has also tightened up and we’re starting to see banding wrapping around the center.

Agencies across the Pacific are expecting Usagi to become a Typhoon as early as tonight and could even become a Category 3 Typhoon as forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Track consensus among the agencies and the models is putting Usagi between Taiwan and Luzon by Saturday; although JTWC and JMA are showing Usage clipping the southern tip of Taiwan by Saturday. However, do remember that the forecast could still change and so residents from Northern Luzon up to Taiwan should continue to monitor the developments of this storm.

We’ll continue to have update throughout the day. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Sunday evening update on Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi as flooding rains dump on Japan

9 pm (JST) Sunday evening, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi remains about 245 km south-southwest of Higashimuro, Japan, or about 645 km southwest of central Tokyo.  The eastward shift has occurred and the current motion is toward the north-northeast at 15 kt.  A shift more toward the northeast should occur overnight as a cold front crosses the Sea of Japan and interacts with Man-yi.  JMA and JTWC both suggest landfall should occur around 00Z… or just prior on Monday morning.  As landfall occurs, significantly high shear with affect Man-yi as the cyclone transitions into a fall-like midlatitude front.  While gusty winds will occur, espeically in and around the Tokyo area, heavy rainfall will affect much of Honshu.  Model guidance is suggesting 200-250 mm (8-10″) of rainfall could fall in western Tokyo through Tuesday morning, with rainfall totals of up to 150 mm (6″) in portions of northern Honshu.  These rains will likely cause flooding conditions and possible landslides, especially in higher terrain.[youtube_sc url=””%5D


[youtube_sc url=””%5D

Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi threatens Japan with gusty winds and flooding rains

As of 09Z, 14 September 2013, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi is positioned about 825 km east of Okinawa or about 1155 km south-southwest of Tokyo, moving toward the northwest at 14 kt.  This motion is expected to continue throughout the night before shifting toward the north as the subtropical ridge currently positioned over Japan retreats in advance of an approaching cold front in northeastern China.  As the cold front moves toward Japan, this will draw Man-yi toward the north and eventually toward the northeast by Sunday evening, setting the stage for gusty winds and heavy rains for a majority of Honshu to begin the week.  Current JMA and JTWC wind forecasts bring storm-force winds (50 kt) to the Kanto Plain and the Tokyo area Monday morning.  Currently, Yokosuka, Atsugi, Yokota, Camp Zama, and Camp Fuji are expecting 50 kt-winds, with gusts up toward 65 kt as Man-yi passes through Monday morning.  As a result, those locations are current under Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) 3.  In addition to the high winds, flooding rains are expected.  Between Nagoya and Osaka, rainfall totals of up to 350 mm are expected through Monday morning.  This heavy rain will make its way northeastward through Aomori Prefecture Monday evening and Tuesday morning, bringing rainfall of 100 – 150 mm to eastern parts of Japan by midday Tuesday.


[youtube_sc url=”″%5D