Archive | October, 2013

Typhoon Nari (Santi) and TS Wipha Sat. Morning Update

Two powerful cyclones are churning the Asia-Pacific Region this morning. One is Typhoon Nari (Bagyong Santi) which is now moving into the South China Sea after making landfall in Aurora Province in the Philippines last night. The other system we’re closely watching is Tropical Storm Wipha, moving across the Philippine Sea.

IR Image from NOAA

101213 0032z ir analysis

The satellite image above perfectly illustrates the location and coverage of both systems. Typhoon Nari looks organized even after crossing Luzon. It will likely intensify further as favorable conditions currently exist across the South China Sea. Latest forecasts from agencies and weather models show a track towards the central part of Vietnam by Monday morning as a strong typhoon.

Radar Image from ClimateX PH

sub radar

Rains still continue across the western portions of Luzon especially in the provinces of Zambales and Bataan. However, as Nari moves quickly away from the Philippines, we expect the weather in the region to gradually improve later today. If you have any images or videos showing the damage brought by Nari/Santi, please feel free to share them with us on our Facebook Page. For more rainfall forecasts from the Philippines, please click HERE (ClimateX PH).

Tropical Storm Wipha, on the other hand, is moving across the Philippine Sea and will likely be upgraded to a typhoon later tonight. Forecast consensus show the system tracking northwestward and then recurving northeastward around the subtropical ridge. Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands may see some scattered rains and high waves on Monday. However, the main area we will be watching are the islands of Shikoku and Honshu. Some models are taking Wipha near these areas by Tuesday as a strong typhoon. Forecasts from JTWC and JMA are taking the center of Wipha just south of Tokyo meaning the large metro area could see some stormy conditions by early next week.

We’ll continue to monitor these two systems in the coming days. Meanwhile, please consult our separate update written by Meteorologist Rober Speta for the latest on Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin which is nearing landfall in the eastern coast of India. Click the link below for more:

Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Typhoon Nari (Bagyong Santi) Fri. Morning Video Update

Typhoon Nari (Bagyong Santi) continues to rapidly intensify this morning as it nears the east coast of Luzon. The typhoon continues to have very strong convective activity characterized by cold cloud tops. An eye is beginning to form as well with the eyewall almost complete based on microwave analysis. Outer rain bands are beginning to push onshore and will affect the provinces of Aurora, Quezon, the Bicol Region this afternoon. Rains will spread into much of Luzon tonight, including Metro Manila. Winds of up to 200kph are also possible near the landfall point in Aurora Province. Again, we’re expecting landfall to occur near the towns of Casiguran and Baler by later tonight or just after midnight.

Watch our video below as we go in-depth on the track and impacts of Typhoon Nari.

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Please note that the video above and the forecasts here are NOT OFFICIAL and should not be used for life or death decision. If you live in the areas forecast to be impacted by Typhoon Nari, please heed the warnings of your local officials and always refer to PAGASA for the latest warnings and forecasts for this typhoon. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) Thursday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 400km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 700km east northeast of Manila. Latest warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency puts the maximum sustained winds to around 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meanwhile, puts Nari’s sustained winds to 110kph and gusts of up to 140kph which is just below typhoon status. TS Nari is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

PAGASA has now issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the province of Catanduanes. The said province will experience stormy conditions with winds of up to 60kph along with light to moderate rains in the next 24 to 36 hours. PAGASA will likely increase the amount of provinces under Signal Warnings in their subsequent updates.

IR Image from NRLMRY

101013 0032z ir analysis

Latest satellite image shows a rapidly improving cyclone with a developing central dense overcast characterized by strong convective activity and good radial outflow. Microwave analysis also show massive improvements in banding compared to yesterday with an eyewall that is becoming more defined. Nari is taking advantage of the favorable conditions in the region and we might actually see the system become a typhoon as early as tonight!

sat forecast track

Computer models are in good agreement with Nari’s future track. The strong subtropical ridge located in Eastern Asia will steer Nari to the west towards Luzon. Right now, forecasts from JMA, JTWC, and PAGASA show a track towards the province of Aurora in Luzon. The image above shows a crude representation of the forecast consensus. Please do note that the image and forecast above is NOT OFFICIAL and should not be used for any life or death decision.

However, what we can say is that Northern and Central Luzon should expect stormy conditions to occur beginning Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday. Areas along the eastern coast should expect to receive the strongest winds along with the threat of high waves and storm surges. Even Southern Luzon, including Manila, might see some gusty winds and light to moderate rains over the next few days. Furthermore, the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon will likely bring another round of rains for Luzon and Visayas in the coming days.

We’ll continue to have updates over the next few days so please stay tuned for more info. Furthermore, make sure to always tune in to the news for the latest updates and signal warnings from PAGASA. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

Bagyong Santi rain/wind forecast visualization 9Oct2013

Here’s an 8-day accumulated rain (color), rain cloud (gray) and wind (arrows) forecast starting from 0UTC of 9Oct2013 to 17Oct2013 downscaled from GFS model.

For more information on this storm please visit the following link.

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