Tropical Storm Fitow (Bagyong Quedan, as its known in the Philippines) continues to consolidate as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Convection has increased and banding is improving as well. Favorable conditions in the region will lead to continued intensification and we could see Fitow become a Typhoon by as early as Thursday morning.
IR Image from FNMOC
Unfortunately, track forecasts are still very much uncertain as of this time. There is so much disparity among the computer models at the moment. Some of them are taking Fitow towards Okinawa while some are taking the storm towards Mainland Japan.
What we do think is the system should move northwards in the near term. By Friday, the uncertainty increases and the eventual track of Fitow will hinge on the strength of the mid-latitude trough and its effect on the Subtropical Ridge that will be steering this storm. Favorable conditions could also lead to Fitow becoming a strong typhoon later this week so areas that will be impacted will definitely have to prepare. While we can’t say with high confidence which areas will be impacted, we do urge everyone from Eastern China, to the Ryukyu Islands, and all the way to Mainland Japan to continue monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Fitow.