Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) Thursday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Nari (Bagyong Santi) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 400km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 700km east northeast of Manila. Latest warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency puts the maximum sustained winds to around 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center, meanwhile, puts Nari’s sustained winds to 110kph and gusts of up to 140kph which is just below typhoon status. TS Nari is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

PAGASA has now issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the province of Catanduanes. The said province will experience stormy conditions with winds of up to 60kph along with light to moderate rains in the next 24 to 36 hours. PAGASA will likely increase the amount of provinces under Signal Warnings in their subsequent updates.

IR Image from NRLMRY

101013 0032z ir analysis

Latest satellite image shows a rapidly improving cyclone with a developing central dense overcast characterized by strong convective activity and good radial outflow. Microwave analysis also show massive improvements in banding compared to yesterday with an eyewall that is becoming more defined. Nari is taking advantage of the favorable conditions in the region and we might actually see the system become a typhoon as early as tonight!

sat forecast track

Computer models are in good agreement with Nari’s future track. The strong subtropical ridge located in Eastern Asia will steer Nari to the west towards Luzon. Right now, forecasts from JMA, JTWC, and PAGASA show a track towards the province of Aurora in Luzon. The image above shows a crude representation of the forecast consensus. Please do note that the image and forecast above is NOT OFFICIAL and should not be used for any life or death decision.

However, what we can say is that Northern and Central Luzon should expect stormy conditions to occur beginning Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday. Areas along the eastern coast should expect to receive the strongest winds along with the threat of high waves and storm surges. Even Southern Luzon, including Manila, might see some gusty winds and light to moderate rains over the next few days. Furthermore, the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon will likely bring another round of rains for Luzon and Visayas in the coming days.

We’ll continue to have updates over the next few days so please stay tuned for more info. Furthermore, make sure to always tune in to the news for the latest updates and signal warnings from PAGASA. Stay safe!

-WxCaster PAT

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