Archive | November, 2013

Western Pacific Weather Outlook

The tropics are–thankfully–relatively quiet.  In the near term, we’re watching a wave east-southeast of Palau that is associated with the ITCZ.  This feature is not anticipated to develop.  By mid-week, the remnants of Tropical Storm Podul, which made landfall Friday morning in southern Vietnam, may redevelop over the Bay of Bengal, affecting coastal India.  Meanwhile, another low develops off Indonesia moving west-northwest.  This circulation would cross the Gulf of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and southern Thailand before emerging in the Bay of Bengal toward the end of this upcoming week.  If the models are on-point, this could strengthen into a well-developed tropical cyclone over the Bay of Bengal before impacting coastal India by the end of next weekend… but we’ll continue to monitor the trend of the forecast models on this feature.

Meanwhile, a developing front is over the Sea of Japan currently.  This front will bring gusty winds to western Japan as well as rain and snow showers for northern Honshu and Hokkaido before moving northeast by mid-week.  To close the week, high pressure from China will spread across the Korean Peninsula and Japan, bringing fair conditions.

More details below in the video.

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Friday evening Podul update

Tropical Storm Podul (32W) made landfall in southern Vietnam earlier today, bringing showers and thunderstorms to much southern Indochina.  Since landfall, JMA has downgraded the system into a tropical depression as it continues heading west.  Medium-range models continue moving the system through Cambodia and Thailand before emerging into the Bay of Bengal as a minor depression and tropical wave.  This scenario is very similar to Tropical Depression 30W (PAGASA name:  Wilma).

Media reports out of Vietnam this evening report locally heavy showers.  Flooding remains a threat as the ground is saturated from tropical rains recently, although significant damage does not appear to be a concern with Podul.


Tropical Depression Zoraida and Haiyan Early Evening Update | November 12, 2013

Tropical Depression Zoraida continues to move across Mindanao with rains falling across Mindanao and Visayas. The center was last located approximately 30km north northeast of Cagayan De Oro City or about 200km south southeast of Cebu City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 85kph according to the latest JMA Warning. TD Zoraida is currently moving westward at 30kph.

PAGASA has actually downgraded Zoraida into a Low Pressure Area, hence all Public Storm Warning Signals have now been lowered.

IR Image from NRLMRY

111213 1057z ir analysis

Latest satellite image shows a cluster of disorganized clouds moving through Central Philippines. Rains have been ongoing since this morning and has actually hampered flights in and out of Tacloban Airport. Thankfully, it looks like weather conditions are improving at least in Eastern Visayas. C130 planes have finally been able to land at the airstrip in Guiuan in Samar Island bringing in much needed relief goods and medicines.

For more updates on Tropical Depression Zoraida and the situation in the Philippines brought by Typhoon Haiyan, please watch our video below:

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If you want to help, please donate to the Philippine Red Cross; just click on the image on our homepage. Thank you!

Stay safe!

Zoraida making landfall in Davao Oriental – Tuesday Morning Update

Weak tropical depression Zoraida is making landfall this morning in Davao Oriental.  The circulation center with Zoraida remains partially exposed and well elongated.  That, coupled with traversing Mindanao, should limit any near-term development.  Additionally, most model guidance keeps Zoraida as a tropical depression or, at worst, a minor tropical storm.  However, regardless of development, rain showers and thunderstorms are spreading over most of the Visayas, where recovery efforts are on-going, and Mindanao.  GFS models are indicating 25-50 mm of rainfall over much of Mindanao and the Visayas through Friday morning with southern Palawan possibly receiving 50-100 mm.

This morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for much of northern and northeastern Mindanao as well as a majority of the central and western Visayas and northern Palawan.  JMA still forecasts Zoraida to be upgraded into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours, however, considering land impacts, this may be difficult to achieve until Zoraida is located in the Sulu Sea.  On the other hand, JTWC has yet to issue advisories on this system as it misses the requirements to be declared a tropical cyclone by US/JTWC definition.  However, they maintain the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for this area, labelled Invest 90W.

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Latest video update from Robert Speta Below, this video covers Zoraida but also the heavy snowfall that is taking place across northern Japan.


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