Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian rapidly strengthen on Thursday northwest of Tonga. Current winds are 165 km/h with a pressure of 960 hPa… however, recent infrared satellite imagery since sunset suggests that Ian may have weakened some… or at least has stopped strengthening. Prior to sunset, a visible eye was apparent, albeit somewhat cloud filled. After sunset, little warming (indicative of an eye) is apparent on satellite. After a few days of erratic drifting between Fiji and Tonga, the subtropical ridge to the southeast of Ian is retrograding northward in advance of a frontal boundary moving east across New Zealand. The frontal will entice Ian to pick up forward speed and move southeastward across the northern islands of Tonga, spreading hurricane-force winds across several islands before weakening late this weekend southeast of Tonga.