Wanted to share a quick graphic with you that shows the large variance between meteorological agencies on determining the center of Tropical Storm Peipah. This is the analysis–not a forecast–by trained meteorologists. As you can see, there are differences as great as about 160 km (between JMA and JTWC). That is the difference between Tacloban City and Cebu City! I share this image to emphasis how this science can sometimes be an art. Of course, with each analyzed circulation, this creates shifts in the forecast track. If the track starts off 150 km too far north… this can lead to similar, if not greater, errors over time in the forecast.
Where in the world is Peipah? (Wednesday morning)