Archive | September, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi Strikes NE Vietnam; Watching LPA 96W (Tuesday Night Update)

Good evening,

Typhoon KalmaegiWe continue to monitor the progress of Typhoon Kalmaegi as it is making landfall in Quảng Ninh province in northeastern Vietnam.  As of 8 pm Indochina Time, the center of circulation was estimated by radar and satellite about 50 km southeast of Đầm Hà, Vietnam or about 225 km east of Hà Nội, Vietnam.  Kalmaegi continues moving west-northwest at 31 km/h.  Sustained winds near the center are estimated at 130 km/h with higher gusts to 185 km/h.  Central pressure is estimated at 965 hPa.

Yellow Thunderbolt Warning is in effect for Jiangxi province in China.
Yellow Torrential Rain Warning is in effect for Yunnan province in China.
Orange Typhoon Warning and Torrential Rain Warning are in effect for Guangxi province in China.JMA Forecast Track

While severe winds will be an issue throughout the Northeast region of Vietnam, the concern shifts to heavy rainfall which will affect northern Vietnam, northern Laos, northern Thailand, and Myanmar over the next day or two.  Beyond that, the remnant low will be pulled into the larger monsoonal lows over India and the Tibetan plateau, which may increase rainfall in that region.  Rainfall totals of 150-300 mm will be likely over the next week along the path of the remnant low with isolated totals as high as 500 mm possible.

GFS Surface Model - 18/1200 UTCAs Kalmaegi makes it’s final landfall, we’re keeping an eye on LPA 96W, which has been slowly moving west across the Caroline Islands.  As of 1200 UTC, the center of this low was located between Guam and Palau and is moving slowly westward.  Models continue to suggest development with this system.  It appears, however, that the threat for the Philippines remains limited.  GFS continues to pull the low northward as it’s influenced by the Baiu front south of Japan.  While a landfall is not anticipated at this time, it still bears watching, especially as this low will likely enhance the Southwest Monsoon.  Looking toward the weekend, some baroclinicity appears to strengthen the low and a similar case to Tropical Storm Mitag / Ester may occur.  In that case, the low was being influenced by the Baiu front and strengthened.  While JTWC declared this an extratropical low due to the baroclinicity, JMA called that particular storm a tropical storm for a short time before saying the storm had fully merged with the frontal boundary.  We’ll continue to monitor the progress of that low.GFS Surface Model - 21/1200 UTC

Until next time, stay safe.






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Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Afternoon Video Update | September 14, 2014

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) is now beginning to interact with the island of Luzon and is forecast to make landfall in the province of Isabela later this evening. Watch WxCaster PAT’s Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecast regarding this typhoon.

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Kalmaegi was last located approximately 140km east of Ilagan Isabela or about 180km east southeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan. According to the latest warning from Japan Meteorological Agency, the typhoon is packing maximum sustained winds of around 120kph and gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is currently moving west northwestward at a speed of 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

091414 0732z ir analysis

As of 11am this morning, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:

Signal #3 for Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Ifugao, Northern Aurora, and Quirino. 

Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, and the rest of Aurora. 

Signal #1 for Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Northern Quezon, and Polilio Island.

Typhoon Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall near Palanan Bay in the province of Isabela later this evening (around 6 to 8pm local time). It will then cross into the provinces of Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and then Ilocos Norte before exiting into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Heavy rains of up to 300mm are possible, especially in mountainous areas. Landslides and flooding are highly possible. Please heed the warnings of your local officials and as always, stay safe!

Deteriorating Weather Ahead of Typhoon Kalmaegi / Bagyong Luis (Saturday night update)

Rain and thunderstorms are spreading across a majority of the Philippines tonight as Typhoon Kalmaegi approaches from the east.rbtop-animated

Over the course of the day, Kalmaegi continued to become better organized.  Microwave imagery showed that convection began to wrap lightly into the center with a central dense overcast feature over the center.  By evening, Dvorak analyses generally reached T4.0 and was enough to be upgraded to a typhoon by JMA at 0900 UTC.

Storm Signals as of 5 pm PhSTPAGASA has raised Signal 2 for Cagayan and Isabela with Signal 1 throughout northeastern Luzon.  An update at 11 pm PhST may include more upgrades and/or provinces.

The forecast theories still remain the same with continued west-northwestward movement.  Most of the models agree on a Isabela province landfall late Sunday.  Further intensification is expected prior to landfall with some weakening early Monday morning as Kalmaegi moves across northern Luzon.  Afterwhich, Kalmaegi will emerge into the South China Sea where it will re-intensify before making a second landfall in Hainan Island or Guangdong province on Tuesday night.

As for impacts to Luzon… the biggest threat will be rainfall.  Heavy showers will soak much of Luzon, including Metro Manila.  There are flooding/flash flood concerns for Isabela and Cagayan along with some minor storm surge issues for low-lying areas.  Severe winds will be confined to near and just north of the center of circulation.JMA Forecast Track

Stay posted to updates from PAGASA and local authorities as Kalmaegi approaches.  We’ll continue to update throughout the day on Sunday prior and through landfall.






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Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Bagyo Luis) transiting the Philippine Sea, threatens Friday (Friday evening update)

Good evening,

Earlier today, JMA (along with PAGASA and JTWC) upgraded the tropical depression in the Philippine Sea into the 15th tropical storm of the 2014 WPAC Season:  Tropical Storm Kalmaegi.  (Listen to pronunciation here)  It also gained the Philippine name Luis.

As of 0900 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located approximately 710 km east of Virac, Philippines or 1060 km east of Metro Manila.  Kalmaegi is moving west at 22 km/h with sustained winds near the center at 65 km/h gusting up to 95 km/h.  The central pressure has dropped to 998 hPa.

12/1114 UTC Enhanced IR Satellite Image

The main reason behind the upgrade was better satellite presentation, confirmed by Dvorak analyses.  Both JTWC and NESDIS noted convection wrapping 60-70% around the center of circulation, which yields a T3.0.

The short-term forecast still has some work to do.  The frontal boundary southeast of Japan has re-established the Baiu boundary–a stationary front that separates the tropical airmass from the mid-latitude airmass.  Because this feature is stationary, it’s influence of the track of Kalmaegi will be limited, but will couple with general low pressure across the South China Sea to influence Kalmaegi west-northwestward toward Luzon.  A majority of the models were pin-pointing a landfall in Isabela province Sunday or Monday (the basis of JMA’s and PAGASA’s forecast), but a southward shift has been noticed today with some models going as far south as Metro Manila.  As a result, JTWC has shifted their track southward toward Aurora province.  Either way, those throughout Luzon should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.  Additionally, as Kalmaegi approaches, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon.  As a result, increased showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend and early next week for the Visayas and Mindanao.

JMA Forecast TrackThe intensity forecast, like most intensity forecasts, is hard to nail down.  GFS and the GFDN are throttled back, intensifying Kalmaegi to around 120 km/h prior to landfall.  On the other hand, HWRF is the most bullish, ramping the storm up to 215 km/h prior to landfall.  JTWC has been pretty consistently saying at or about 155 km/h.  Interestingly, JMA has continued to be conservative, only strengthening Kalmaegi to a 100 km/h severe tropical storm.  Plenty of challenges remain, so we’ll continue to monitor.PSWS as of 5 pm (PhST) Friday

Shifting gears toward impacts, right now the big story will really be rainfall.  Flash flooding and possible landslides in Luzon will be possible as rain totals climb up to 200-300 mm Sunday and Monday, with lower amount across the Visayas and Mindanao thanks to the Southwest Monsoon.  The severe winds will be confined near landfall (whether that’s Isabela, Aurora, or elsewhere).  Storm surge will be a factor for those in low-lying areas along the immediate coastlines.  As a result to the forecast threat, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Catanduanes, identifying the region of possible 30-60 km/h winds in at least 36 hours.

Keep posted as we continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

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