Deteriorating Weather Ahead of Typhoon Kalmaegi / Bagyong Luis (Saturday night update)

Rain and thunderstorms are spreading across a majority of the Philippines tonight as Typhoon Kalmaegi approaches from the east.rbtop-animated

Over the course of the day, Kalmaegi continued to become better organized.  Microwave imagery showed that convection began to wrap lightly into the center with a central dense overcast feature over the center.  By evening, Dvorak analyses generally reached T4.0 and was enough to be upgraded to a typhoon by JMA at 0900 UTC.

Storm Signals as of 5 pm PhSTPAGASA has raised Signal 2 for Cagayan and Isabela with Signal 1 throughout northeastern Luzon.  An update at 11 pm PhST may include more upgrades and/or provinces.

The forecast theories still remain the same with continued west-northwestward movement.  Most of the models agree on a Isabela province landfall late Sunday.  Further intensification is expected prior to landfall with some weakening early Monday morning as Kalmaegi moves across northern Luzon.  Afterwhich, Kalmaegi will emerge into the South China Sea where it will re-intensify before making a second landfall in Hainan Island or Guangdong province on Tuesday night.

As for impacts to Luzon… the biggest threat will be rainfall.  Heavy showers will soak much of Luzon, including Metro Manila.  There are flooding/flash flood concerns for Isabela and Cagayan along with some minor storm surge issues for low-lying areas.  Severe winds will be confined to near and just north of the center of circulation.JMA Forecast Track

Stay posted to updates from PAGASA and local authorities as Kalmaegi approaches.  We’ll continue to update throughout the day on Sunday prior and through landfall.






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