Typhoon Kalmaegi Strikes NE Vietnam; Watching LPA 96W (Tuesday Night Update)

Good evening,

Typhoon KalmaegiWe continue to monitor the progress of Typhoon Kalmaegi as it is making landfall in Quảng Ninh province in northeastern Vietnam.  As of 8 pm Indochina Time, the center of circulation was estimated by radar and satellite about 50 km southeast of Đầm Hà, Vietnam or about 225 km east of Hà Nội, Vietnam.  Kalmaegi continues moving west-northwest at 31 km/h.  Sustained winds near the center are estimated at 130 km/h with higher gusts to 185 km/h.  Central pressure is estimated at 965 hPa.

Yellow Thunderbolt Warning is in effect for Jiangxi province in China.
Yellow Torrential Rain Warning is in effect for Yunnan province in China.
Orange Typhoon Warning and Torrential Rain Warning are in effect for Guangxi province in China.JMA Forecast Track

While severe winds will be an issue throughout the Northeast region of Vietnam, the concern shifts to heavy rainfall which will affect northern Vietnam, northern Laos, northern Thailand, and Myanmar over the next day or two.  Beyond that, the remnant low will be pulled into the larger monsoonal lows over India and the Tibetan plateau, which may increase rainfall in that region.  Rainfall totals of 150-300 mm will be likely over the next week along the path of the remnant low with isolated totals as high as 500 mm possible.

GFS Surface Model - 18/1200 UTCAs Kalmaegi makes it’s final landfall, we’re keeping an eye on LPA 96W, which has been slowly moving west across the Caroline Islands.  As of 1200 UTC, the center of this low was located between Guam and Palau and is moving slowly westward.  Models continue to suggest development with this system.  It appears, however, that the threat for the Philippines remains limited.  GFS continues to pull the low northward as it’s influenced by the Baiu front south of Japan.  While a landfall is not anticipated at this time, it still bears watching, especially as this low will likely enhance the Southwest Monsoon.  Looking toward the weekend, some baroclinicity appears to strengthen the low and a similar case to Tropical Storm Mitag / Ester may occur.  In that case, the low was being influenced by the Baiu front and strengthened.  While JTWC declared this an extratropical low due to the baroclinicity, JMA called that particular storm a tropical storm for a short time before saying the storm had fully merged with the frontal boundary.  We’ll continue to monitor the progress of that low.GFS Surface Model - 21/1200 UTC

Until next time, stay safe.






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[youtube_sc url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBPA8RIDZto”%5D

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