Watch WxCaster PAT’s Video Update for in-depth analysis and forecasts for both Typhoon Phanfone moving towards Japan and Tropical Depression 19W.
A new Tropical Cyclone has formed this morning near the Caroline Islands. Tropical Depression 19W was last spotted 170km northeast of Pohnpei. This system is currently intensifying as it moves westward at 20kph. Winds are estimated to be around 45 to 65kph but should increase over the next few days. Environmental conditions are definitely favorable for development.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows strong convection forming in and around the circulation center. Weak wind shear, good outflow, and a moist environment should help TD 19W intensify over the next few days. It’s possible that it intensifies to near typhoon strength as it moves towards the Northern Mariana Islands.
Latest tracks from the computer models are closely spaced with a consensus showing a general west northwestward track. It should also intensify over the next few days, becoming a Tropical Storm (Vongfong) by tomorrow. It will be moving near Saipan and will impact the rest of the Mariana Islands (including Guam) beginning Sunday evening and into Monday morning.
However, there is still some uncertainty as to where TD 19W will head after that. We will continue to keep a close eye on this system and update our forecasts as soon as we get more information.
Meanwhile, please stay with Western Pacific Weather for the latest update on Typhoon Phanfone. Stay safe!