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Typhoon Nuri rapidly strengthens – Sunday evening update

1420-00

JMA Track Forecast (02/1200Z)

Typhoon Nuri spent the day gathering strength at a rapid pace.  Per the JMA update as 1200 UTC (2100 JST), Nuri was located 975 km east-northeast of Virac, Philippines.  The typhoon continues moving north at 17 km/h.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 195 km/h with higher gusts up to 280 km/h.  (For comparison, the US-based JTWC–which uses a 1-minute average speed versus the world standard of 10-minutes–reported winds of 220 km/h with gusts of 270 km/h.)  The central pressure was estimated at 910 hPa.  Compared to this time yesterday, Typhoon Nuri has strengthened approximately 75 km/h and deepened nearly 65 hPa.  Nuri is approaching peak intensity and additional strengthening is possible on Monday.

JTWC Track Forecast (02/0900Z)

The good news is the near-term forecast keeps Nuri away from the Philippines and the Ryukyus.  The greatest threat to land appears on Wednesday night into Thursday morning where Typhoon Nuri will pass through the Izu Islands south of Tokyo.

Directing the path of Nuri is the subtropical high located to the east of the storm.  As Nuri traverses the western edge of the high, it will slow and begin a northeastward turn.  As we enter the work-week, Nuri will begin to see influence of the westerlies.  Model divergence occurs by Tuesday on the timing of these westerlies compared to a restrengthening subtropical high.  As this occurs, Nuri will begin an extratropical transition, which should be complete by Thursday evening.

Typhoon Nuri rapidly intensifying

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