Archive | March, 2015

Typhoon Maysak Noon Video Update | March 31, 2015

Watch WxCaster PAT’s latest Video Update below for in-depth information on Maysak’s impending impacts across the State of Yap. We also discuss where the typhoon will possible head next in the next few days:

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Typhoon Maysak continues to move ever closer to the State of Yap today. The eye of Maysak was last located approximately 380km east northeast of the island of Yap. Latest analysis from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows increased maximum sustained winds of up to 175kph and gusts of up to 250kph. These winds are significantly lower than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s analysis with sustained winds of up to 230kph and gusts of up to 280kph. Using JTWC’s wind estimates would put Maysak at Category 4 Typhoon intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

IR Image from NRLMRY

033115 0332z ir analysis

Latest satellite image shows Maysak with its symmetrical and cloud-free eye surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Radial outflow remains excellent as well and feeder bands continue to enhance Maysak’s intensity. Short-term forecasts suggest that Maysak may reach a peak intensity of Category 5 Super Typhoon later this evening, just as it moves near the island of Yap.

Forecast from the National Weather Service in Guam

maysak nws guam forecast

Right now, the National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning for Yap and nearby atolls of Ulithi and Fais. The latter two atolls are forecast to begin experiencing life-threatening winds of up to 200kph later this afternoon. Meanwhile, the main island of Yap (home to more than 11,000 people) is forecast to miss the strongest winds in Maysak’s core. However, typhoon-force gusts of up to 75mph (120kph) are still possible throughout the evening hours. Aside from the strong winds and heavy rains, storm surge and wave heights of up to 25feet are also likely along the shore. Weather conditions will remain very dangerous through the early morning hours tomorrow (Wednesday).

For the latest warnings and forecasts from the National Weather Service in Guam, please click HERE

After Yap, Maysak is forecast to move into the Philippine Sea and will be assigned the local name ‘Bagyong Chedeng’ by PAGASA once it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility. While the chances of a Philippine landfall is becoming more likely, Maysak is forecast weaken before it reaches the islands. Right now, the consensus is showing a possible landfall in Northern Luzon by early morning on Easter Sunday. Depending on the rate of weakening, it is possible that Maysak will still attain its strong typhoon-intensity before making landfall this weekend.

We’ll continue to have the latest information on the progress of Maysak. For readers in Yap, please heed the warnings of your local officials and should be in sturdy shelters away from the shore at this time. Stay safe!