Archive | January, 2016

Weekend update- January 30/31, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 29-30 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 29-30 JAN

A new storm system brings snow to parts of Japan this weekend, while rain continues to fall in the central region. Heat continues to settle into the south, and the tropics have a little action too.

NORTH

A new, weaker, surge of colder air is making its way through the north region at this time, and will press through the entire region by Sunday. A new “south coast low” storm system is bringing lots of rain to eastern China and southern Japan, with fair amounts of snow in the higher elevations. Some snow could fall in the lower elevations, and in eastern portions of Honshu, as the colder air builds in quickly before the storm system can clear out the moisture. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures are rising in the far north, but falling everywhere else as high pressure builds into the region behind the newest surge. This new surge will keep things cool for a couple of days before temperatures start to once again rebound as we head into the new work week. Hints of a new storm system will start to appear in the western portions of the region on Sunday, bringing clouds and snow to some locations of west-central China.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Ulaanbaatar -16 (3) -13 (9) Fair/Fair
Vladivostok -11 (12) -11 (12) Fair/Fair
Beijing -2 (28) 2 (36) Pt. Cloudy/Fair
Seoul 6 (43) 0 (32) Cloudy/Fair
Tokyo 6 (43) 8 (47) Snow/Partly Cloudy
Xi’an 6 (43) 2 (36) Pt. Cloudy/Snow
Shanghai 7 (45) 6 (43) Cloudy/Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The latest storm system to affect the region will make its way to the northeast this weekend, but it will be slow to clear out in the region, thanks to the colder air moving in from the northwest. Coastal locations of southeastern China will see a brief break tomorrow, before more clouds and showers return with the new cold surge. Clouds and rain of some sort will affect all other eastern locations of the central region through Sunday, as moisture from the current system lingers ahead of the new cold front. To the west, clouds will build through the day today, with a few showers moving in tomorrow as a new disturbance affects southwestern China. Temperatures in the central region will hold steady through the weekend, and start to fall once again as we head into the new week.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Kunming 14 (57) 14 (57) Fair/Showers
Hong Kong 18 (64) 16 (61) Pt. Cloudy/Showers
Taipei 16 (61) 16 (61) Rain/Rain
Iwo To 14 (57) 15 (59) Cloudy/Showers
Hanoi 18 (64) 19 (66) Cloudy/Rain

 

SOUTH

The heat will ease up just a bit across the south this weekend, but it will still be dangerously hot in some areas, especially considering that the start of February is coming up. An old trough associated with last weekend’s very strong cold surge continues to wash out as it drifts back to the north in response to the new surge coming down from mainland Asia. This trough will affect weather across the northern Philippines this weekend, with a chance of showers and a stray thunderstorm possible today. Singapore could also see a few thunderstorms this afternoon, but aside from those areas of precipitation, the remainder of the region will see clear skies to scattered clouds, with lots of warm sunshine to close out the month of January.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Siem Reap 34 (93) 34 (93) Pt. Cloudy/Pt. Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 34 (93) 34 (93) Fair/Ptly. Cloudy
Manila 32 (90) 32 (90) Sct. T-stm/Pt. Cloudy
Davao City 33 (91) 33 (91) Fair/Ptly. Cloudy
Brunei 32 (90) 31 (88) Fair/Fair
Singapore 32 (90) 33 (91) T-storms/Pt. Cloudy

 

TROPICS

After getting some activity in the tropics earlier in the week, it would appear that the disturbance known as 90W INVEST is basically falling apart due to the rather inhospitable atmospheric conditions in the area where it’s located. Lots of dry air, combined with high VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) spells doom for this system as it tracks west along the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Official agencies are not addressing this system at all in their daily bulletins, and computer models continue to settle on a solution that brings a very weak disturbance into the Philippines next week to combine with the incoming cold surge to help spawn much-needed rainfall over the nation. We will keep a close eye on this system and advise you of any changes. 90W WILL bring a good deal of cloudiness, showers, and even some thunderstorms and gusty winds to the central and western islands of Micronesia this weekend. An old trough is draped over the entirety of the region, bringing clouds, showers, and some gusty winds to the southern Marianas and even as far east as Wake Island. The remainder of the regions locations will see just a few scattered clouds and ample sunshine.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Guam 27 (81) 27 (81) Showers&Wind/Pt. Cldy
Yap 30 (86) 31 (88) T-storms/Showers
Palau 31 (88) 30 (86) Cloudy/Showers&Wind
Chuuk 29 (84) 29 (84) Pt. Cloudy&Wind/Fair
Pohnpei 29 (84) 29 (84) Pt. Cloudy/Pt. Cloudy
Majuro 29 (84) 29 (84) Pt. Cldy/Pt. Cloudy&Wind
Wake 26 (79) 27 (81) Pt. Cloudy&Wind/Pt. Cldy

Have a superb weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, NRL, JTWC, Weather.com, Intellicast, MeteoEarth

Winter Storm to bring Flooding and Heavy Snowfall across Japan including Tokyo

Another southern coast low is rolling its way across the country of Japan today bringing its usual mixed bag of unfavorable weather to residents from Okinawa to Hokkaido. 

In Okinawa we have been getting comments on our facebook page this morning of heavy rainfall persistant for the past 2 days. This is the leading edge of the storm that is moving north east and even though it is ushering in warm temperatures which could push record breaking Friday it will also be accompanied by continued rainfall.  The current record high in January for Okinawa is 26C, we are looking at a high of 25 possibly 26 on Friday.

Visible Satellite

Further north east in Kyushu and Western Honshu up to 100-120mm is expected to fall Friday evening. The problem here of course is short time heavy rain but also rapid snow melt from the storm earlier this week to hit this region. That means flash flooding and river level rising is possible through Saturday. At the very least have a umbrella ready but be aware of flood prone areas with this storm.

THE SNOWFALL

Despite this storm bringing in warm air it does look like things will be just cold enough across central Japan to change that rain over to snowfall. Wet heavy snow that will accumalate fast on roadways across the region.

In Tokyo up to 5-10cm is likely according to JMA. While people may think that is not a lot in Tokyo it is enough to shut the city down. Power will stay on and people will not run out of food, but travel will be restricted due to the impossible nature of removing snowfall in the city.

This is common with southern coast lows in January and February. The track below shows you the general path these storms tend to take.

For the skiers and snowboarders (check out this link if you want to hit up the mountains of Japan) it looks like plenty of snowfall in the Japanese alps this weekend.  It will start off with rain here on Friday in lower elevations but quickly change over to snowfall as cold air is dragged in across the sea of Japan.

According to JMA in Nagano we could see up to 40cm of snowfall while higher elevations will be looking at even more of deep (but heavy) snowfall through Saturday morning.

Snowfall Friday Night

Snowfall Friday Night

For those who want to get out and cut up some lines Saturday its going to be one of the better days of the season thus far to do so.

The snow will last through Saturday before tapering off in to the afternoon hours in Central Japan. Depending on how much falls in the Tokyo area expect travel delays to last anywhere from Saturday night through Sunday.

Please watch me on NHKWORLD Monday – Friday in the morning hours Japan time for global and Japan forecast.

snowoutlook

 

Daily update- Friday, January 29, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 29 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 29 JAN

A new storm system brings clouds and rain to eastern portions of the north and central regions, while the south continues to see intense heat, and the tropics spring to life. 

NORTH

As a new, weaker, shot of cold air starts to make its way into the north region, a new storm system has formed farther south and east, poised to become another typical winter “south coast low” for Japan over the next 48 hours. Temperatures will stay warm enough to keep the precipitation in the form of rainfall in the more populated areas of Honshu, but higher elevations, and parts of Hokkaido, could see additional snowfall accumulations. Rain will also fall along the eastern coast of China, while most of the deep moisture will stay offshore of Korea, bringing only clouds to the area. Temperatures are cooling to the north, and this trend will spread through the remainder of the region over the next 2 days.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -19 (2) -33 (-27) Fair
Vladivostok -11 (12) -28 (-9) Fair
Beijing 0 (32) -8 (18) Fair
Seoul 7 (45) -2 (28) Cloudy
Tokyo 9 (48) 3 (37) Rain
Xi’an 7 (45) -4 (26) Partly Cloudy
Shanghai 7 (45) 3 (37) Rain

 

CENTRAL

The storm system affecting the north region has been forming over the central region for the past two days, bringing plentiful rainfall to southern and eastern portions of the region. As the system deepens and moves to the east and north tomorrow, conditions will improve a bit over southeastern China, but lingering clouds will keep skies dreary over northern Indochina. Rain will fall across Taiwan, which has received their fair share of moisture this winter. Elsewhere, high pressure building in will keep skies partly cloudy over central China. Temperatures will hold steady across the region today, with rain and clouds keeping things cool where they occur.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 13 (55) 0 (32) Ptly Cloudy
Hong Kong 18 (64) 13 (55) Rain & Dec. Clouds
Taipei 20 (68) 15 (59) Rain
Iwo To 16 (61) 9 (48) Fair
Hanoi 19 (66) 13 (55) Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

Temperatures in some locations of the south region are incredibly hot for this time of year, with dangerous values expected in portions of central Indochina later this afternoon. Temperatures are averaging well above 32C (90F) across the entirety of the region, as tropical heat builds each day with the slowly increasing sun angle. A long trough associated with last weekend’s surge is stalled out over the region, extending from the central Philippines, all the way out past the IDL (International Date Line). This has been a focusing mechanism for clouds and showers for the past 3 days, and will continue to be so for another day or so as it dissipates completely.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 36 (97) 23 (73) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 33 (91) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Manila 33 (91) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Davao City 33 (91) 23 (73) Fair
Brunei 32 (90) 26 (79) Fair
Singapore 32 (90) 26 (79) Thunderstorms

 

TROPICS 

At this time, 90W INVEST has been designated by official sources, located near 5N, 153E, or, in roughly the same vicinity of Chuuk Island in eastern Micronesia. The system is drifting slowly to the west, and is helping generate plentiful clouds, showers, gusty winds, and thunderstorms in the area. 90W is not expected to develop much due to the substantially inhospitable conditions throughout the region. Latest computer model runs continue to trend towards a solution that brings a very weak low pressure area towards the Philippines this weekend, with dissipation of the system as it passes over the nation Tuesday and combines with an incoming continental surge. As always, we will keep a close watch on things out there. Elsewhere across the region, clouds and showers are possible in Micronesia due to 90W INVEST, while a few showers and gusty winds will affect parts of the southern Mariana Islands, thanks to a dissipating trough feature in the vicinity. Everyone else will see a great day, with few clouds and lots of sun.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 27 (81) 23 (73) Showers & Windy
Yap 31 (88) 25 (77) Partly Cloudy
Palau 31 (88) 25 (77) Showers
Chuuk 29 (84) 26 (79) Tstorms & Windy
Pohnpei 29 (84) 26 (79) Cloudy
Majuro 29 (84) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Wake 26 (79) 22 (72) Ptly Cloudy & Windy

Have a superb Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth