Archive | January 3, 2016

First Work Week of 2016 Weather and Tropical Outlook

Good morning, happy Monday and Happy New year to everyone across the Western Pacific starting who is heading in to work and starting off the first work week of 2016.

 

Changing things up a little today I am putting together a quick over view of what to expect today and for the week to come across the region.

 

Japan

 

Temperatures across Japan are soaring above average this Monday with highs in the Tokyo area pushing in to mid teens. This is the average for the month of April and indeedly not very mid-winter like. Last year on the 1st of January in fact we seen snowfall in the Tokyo area.

 

Date 4
Mon
5
Tue
6
Wed
7
Thu
8
Fri
9
Sat
10
Sun
Tokyo CLEAR CLEAR, CLOUDY LATER CLOUDY PARTLY CLOUDY MOSTLY CLOUDY PARTLY CLOUDY PARTLY CLOUDY
Probability of
Precipitation (%)
-/0/0/0 0/0/10/10 20 10 20 10 10
Reliability / / A A A A A
Tokyo High (°C) 17
15
11
(9 – 14)
13
(11 – 15)
9
(8 – 12)
11
(8 – 13)
10
(9 – 12)
Low (°C) / 6
7
(4 – 8)
6
(4 – 7)
4
(2 – 5)
3
(1 – 4)
3
(1 – 4)

Areas in the mountains are also dealing with this drastic change in weather from last year where most resorts were submerged in a chest deep layer of powder across the Alps. This season this is not so much the case with most resorts averaging around a 20-30cm base.

The video below gives you a idea of what I mean when talking about the lack of base and trying to venture off piste in that. It could be dangerous at times.

For those who want cooler temps it does look like more seasonal weather is in the forecast starting Wednesday through the weekend with persistant north west winds ushering in persistant snowfall across central to northern Japan.
Farther south in Okinawa it looks like consistant rain will be big problem at least through Wednesday before temperaturs start to cool down with the north west winds pushing in. With that at least clear skies.

 

Date 4
Mon
5
Tue
6
Wed
7
Thu
8
Fri
9
Sat
10
Sun
Okinawa-honto Chiho SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOUDY, FREQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOUDY, FREQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOUDY CLOUDY, OCCASIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOUDY CLOUDY
Probability of
Precipitation (%)
-/60/60/60 60/60/60/60 80 40 60 30 30
Reliability / / B B C C B
Naha High (°C) 23
25
23
(21 – 24)
21
(19 – 23)
20
(18 – 22)
19
(17 – 21)
19
(17 – 21)
Low (°C) / 20
17
(16 – 19)
16
(14 – 18)
15
(13 – 17)
14
(12 – 16)
14
(12 – 16)

China

 

Northern China is sitting under a big bubble of high pressure to start off the work week leading to calm but foggy conditions across the region.

 

Beijing’s AQI index is decent this morning with air quality levels in the good range. But just to the south east in to the industrial regions of the country readings jump to hazardous under the calm air.

Hong Kong 5 Day Outlook

Hong Kong 5 Day Outlook

Meanwhile south east China is seeing rain showers from Hong Kong to Taiwan. Up to 80mm is expected in Hong Kong specifically through Tuesday before thing taper off and shift east over Okinawa.

 

The Philippines

 

Following a wet start to the new year in Luzon the North East Monsoon is now regaining control and ushering in its effects with cooler temperatures and dry skies.

 

Temperatures across northern Luzon may dive in to the teens in the overnight hours.

temps

The Tropics

 

Relax it is the middle of winter is something I have been saying over and over again for the past week. Social media has made sensible Meteorological warnings a thing of the past with a lot of “social media” casters out there a lot of people have been upset and worried over nothing following a few model runs from the GFS super computer in the USA.

 

Check out this post from Michael Williams this past weekend, it really describes a lot

 

With the apparent demise of 99W/09C far to the east, I want to bring all members’ attention to WHY we do not put the “cart ahead of the horse” in terms of forecasting.

The system was never expected to be a significant system by a consensus of model output or forecast agencies. Yet some here, and in other locations of social media, chose to focus on the ONE model that showed development, and used that as their guide. That is the wrong methodology by anyone’s standards.

When factoring in development potential, you MUST go outside of the models and OBSERVE. What you see is more important than what a computer thinks will happen. The computer models are merely tools. You always have to look at those outputs as SUGGESTIONS, and not fact.

Did you know that there is still NO computer as powerful as the human mind? None. Anywhere. We are still decades away from developing that kind of computing power.

The point is this…there is no computer on Earth that can replace the complex observational abilities of your brain. The KEY is KNOWING what you are looking at. Admittedly, most of you are not familiar enough with the science to understand these things. That’s OK. You can learn, and the basics will never change.

Please refrain from making wild assumptions about storms in our posts and threads. For what limited knowledge you have about these phenomena, one who sees your commentary may know far less, but believe what you say. You could incite fear in someone else unnecessarily, when you don’t really even know what you’re talking about.

How would it REALLY make you feel if you knew that you affected someone’s life in a way to cause them fear, without due cause? If you are the kind of person I would associate with, you would see that as a violation of a “human code of behavior”, and not relish in the undeserved attention that comes your way, but realize it is a dark, sinister thing to treat people in such ways.

We are here to help each other. Not scare or mistreat others. My resolution THIS year for this group is to BANISH ANYONE who creates unnecessary fear amongst our members on the FIRST offense. Since people like that apparently know it all already, they don’t need us. And we certainly don’t need them here.

We look forward to another year of giving timely, ACCURATE information, based on years of study and professional application of these skills by our administrators and chief contributors. We hope we can be useful to you. Suggestions on how to improve the service are always welcome.

Daily update- Monday, January 4, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 04 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 04 JAN

As we get back to normal after a long holiday week, we find that the weather situation is pretty much back to business as usual as well across eastern Asia and Oceania.  The north sees more cold air move in, while the central warms up just a bit. The south cools down a tad, and the tropics remain quiet.

NORTH

Heavy snowfall was reported this weekend over portions of northwestern China and southern Mongolia, with many locations seeing in excess of 50mm of wintry precipitation.  Cold air has also moved into portions of northeastern China, Korea, and eastern Russia. Locations to the south and east are considerably warmer, with Tokyo, Xi’an, and Shanghai averaging 7C higher temperatures this afternoon compared to Beijing and Seoul to the north. A weak pulse of energy is moving across the southeastern sections of the region, bringing a good deal of shower activity to eastern China.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -17 (1) -26 (-15) Partly Cloudy
Vladivostok -3 (27) -14 (7) Partly Cloudy
Beijing 2 (36) -7 (19) Fair
Seoul 4 (39) -4 (25) Fair
Tokyo 16 (61) 4 (39) Fair
Xi’an 12 (54) -1 (30) Partly Cloudy
Shanghai 13 (55) 9 (48) Rain

 

CENTRAL

Temperatures across southern China, Taiwan, and northern Indochina are rebounding quickly, with afternoon highs quite a bit warmer compared to just 5 days ago. A weak weather disturbance is moving across portions of southeastern China and Taiwan, bringing a few showers along. This disturbance trails back into northern Vietnam and Laos, helping keep the sky cloudy.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 15 (59) 2 (36) Fair
Hong Kong 22 (72) 19 (66) Scattered Showers
Taipei 25 (77) 19 (66) Scattered Showers
Iwo To 16 (61) 5 (41) Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 24 (75) 19 (66) Mostly Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

The intense heat in the south is starting to abate just a bit, but it’s still very warm across the region. The seasonal northeast monsoon is helping drive down the humidity levels across the region, resulting in some pleasant diurnal temperature swings nearing 10C (18F) each day. The atmosphere in the southern sections of the region is quite humid, so scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect portions of Indonesia and Malaysia during the peak of afternoon heating. Locations to the north, however, will all see just a few clouds and plenty of sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 34 (93) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 33 (91) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Manila 32 (90) 22 (72) Fair
Davao City 32 (90) 22 (72) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 32 (90) 26 (79) Sctd. Thunderstorms
Singapore 31 (88) 26 (79) Thunderstorms

 

TROPICS

The tropics remain mostly quiet today with only a couple of disturbances to note within the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). One weak wave is located in eastern Micronesia, and will affect Pohnpei and Chuuk islands today. The second wave is the remnant of what was TD09C, which was also known as 99W INVEST about a week ago. There is little risk of re-organization, but some showers associated with this system could be heavy and the Marshall Islands will see some gusty winds today, especially in, and near, thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the tropics, locations to the north and west can expect a wonderful day today, with plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds, with Wake Island being the lone exception, looking at a raw, windy, shower-filled day.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 27 (81) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Yap 30 (86) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Palau 31 (88) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Chuuk 29 (84) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Pohnpei 29 (84) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Majuro 29 (84) 27 (81) Cloudy & Windy
Wake 27 (81) 24 (75) Showers & Windy

Have a great Monday!!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth