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First Work Week of 2016 Weather and Tropical Outlook

Good morning, happy Monday and Happy New year to everyone across the Western Pacific starting who is heading in to work and starting off the first work week of 2016.

 

Changing things up a little today I am putting together a quick over view of what to expect today and for the week to come across the region.

 

Japan

 

Temperatures across Japan are soaring above average this Monday with highs in the Tokyo area pushing in to mid teens. This is the average for the month of April and indeedly not very mid-winter like. Last year on the 1st of January in fact we seen snowfall in the Tokyo area.

 

Date 4
Mon
5
Tue
6
Wed
7
Thu
8
Fri
9
Sat
10
Sun
Tokyo CLEAR CLEAR, CLOUDY LATER CLOUDY PARTLY CLOUDY MOSTLY CLOUDY PARTLY CLOUDY PARTLY CLOUDY
Probability of
Precipitation (%)
-/0/0/0 0/0/10/10 20 10 20 10 10
Reliability / / A A A A A
Tokyo High (°C) 17
15
11
(9 – 14)
13
(11 – 15)
9
(8 – 12)
11
(8 – 13)
10
(9 – 12)
Low (°C) / 6
7
(4 – 8)
6
(4 – 7)
4
(2 – 5)
3
(1 – 4)
3
(1 – 4)

Areas in the mountains are also dealing with this drastic change in weather from last year where most resorts were submerged in a chest deep layer of powder across the Alps. This season this is not so much the case with most resorts averaging around a 20-30cm base.

The video below gives you a idea of what I mean when talking about the lack of base and trying to venture off piste in that. It could be dangerous at times.

For those who want cooler temps it does look like more seasonal weather is in the forecast starting Wednesday through the weekend with persistant north west winds ushering in persistant snowfall across central to northern Japan.
Farther south in Okinawa it looks like consistant rain will be big problem at least through Wednesday before temperaturs start to cool down with the north west winds pushing in. With that at least clear skies.

 

Date 4
Mon
5
Tue
6
Wed
7
Thu
8
Fri
9
Sat
10
Sun
Okinawa-honto Chiho SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOUDY, FREQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOUDY, FREQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOUDY CLOUDY, OCCASIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOUDY CLOUDY
Probability of
Precipitation (%)
-/60/60/60 60/60/60/60 80 40 60 30 30
Reliability / / B B C C B
Naha High (°C) 23
25
23
(21 – 24)
21
(19 – 23)
20
(18 – 22)
19
(17 – 21)
19
(17 – 21)
Low (°C) / 20
17
(16 – 19)
16
(14 – 18)
15
(13 – 17)
14
(12 – 16)
14
(12 – 16)

China

 

Northern China is sitting under a big bubble of high pressure to start off the work week leading to calm but foggy conditions across the region.

 

Beijing’s AQI index is decent this morning with air quality levels in the good range. But just to the south east in to the industrial regions of the country readings jump to hazardous under the calm air.

Hong Kong 5 Day Outlook

Hong Kong 5 Day Outlook

Meanwhile south east China is seeing rain showers from Hong Kong to Taiwan. Up to 80mm is expected in Hong Kong specifically through Tuesday before thing taper off and shift east over Okinawa.

 

The Philippines

 

Following a wet start to the new year in Luzon the North East Monsoon is now regaining control and ushering in its effects with cooler temperatures and dry skies.

 

Temperatures across northern Luzon may dive in to the teens in the overnight hours.

temps

The Tropics

 

Relax it is the middle of winter is something I have been saying over and over again for the past week. Social media has made sensible Meteorological warnings a thing of the past with a lot of “social media” casters out there a lot of people have been upset and worried over nothing following a few model runs from the GFS super computer in the USA.

 

Check out this post from Michael Williams this past weekend, it really describes a lot

 

With the apparent demise of 99W/09C far to the east, I want to bring all members’ attention to WHY we do not put the “cart ahead of the horse” in terms of forecasting.

The system was never expected to be a significant system by a consensus of model output or forecast agencies. Yet some here, and in other locations of social media, chose to focus on the ONE model that showed development, and used that as their guide. That is the wrong methodology by anyone’s standards.

When factoring in development potential, you MUST go outside of the models and OBSERVE. What you see is more important than what a computer thinks will happen. The computer models are merely tools. You always have to look at those outputs as SUGGESTIONS, and not fact.

Did you know that there is still NO computer as powerful as the human mind? None. Anywhere. We are still decades away from developing that kind of computing power.

The point is this…there is no computer on Earth that can replace the complex observational abilities of your brain. The KEY is KNOWING what you are looking at. Admittedly, most of you are not familiar enough with the science to understand these things. That’s OK. You can learn, and the basics will never change.

Please refrain from making wild assumptions about storms in our posts and threads. For what limited knowledge you have about these phenomena, one who sees your commentary may know far less, but believe what you say. You could incite fear in someone else unnecessarily, when you don’t really even know what you’re talking about.

How would it REALLY make you feel if you knew that you affected someone’s life in a way to cause them fear, without due cause? If you are the kind of person I would associate with, you would see that as a violation of a “human code of behavior”, and not relish in the undeserved attention that comes your way, but realize it is a dark, sinister thing to treat people in such ways.

We are here to help each other. Not scare or mistreat others. My resolution THIS year for this group is to BANISH ANYONE who creates unnecessary fear amongst our members on the FIRST offense. Since people like that apparently know it all already, they don’t need us. And we certainly don’t need them here.

We look forward to another year of giving timely, ACCURATE information, based on years of study and professional application of these skills by our administrators and chief contributors. We hope we can be useful to you. Suggestions on how to improve the service are always welcome.

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