Archive | January 7, 2016

The Snow Faucet Turns On Across Japan Weekend Outlook

The snow faucet is finally turning on across Japan this week following a painfully slow start to the season. The good news is as we go ahead through the weekend and even in to the coming week the winter weather pattern we love so much will turn on and stay in place.

North West winds will continue to dominate the outlook, more specifically northwest winds at times setting up a “river of snowfall” for those in Niigata and Nagano. In fact over 50cm is likely to occur across this area through Sunday and even more on Sunday.

hokoriku snow

All this cold air is bringing in snow for the Sea of Japan coast but keep in mind for those in Tokyo it will stay dry but chilly through the upcoming week. I do want to note and only in passing as it is very uncertain. But some numerical models are calling for some decent snowfall next weekend 16th and 17th in the Tokyo area. Could or could not happen but Ill put it out there for the time being.


LOooooooNG Range ECMWF Snow Outlook

LOooooooNG Range ECMWF Snow Outlook

The cold air is coming from somewhere too. That is Far East Russia and North East China. In Harbin the largest Ice Festival in the world is on going and this year is the largest event in the 30 year history of the massive fest. In fact it boast the largest ice sculpture ( a castle) and the largest ice slide on record. I have never been there personally but it looks like a load of fun.


Throughout winter in Japan the term “Sea Effect Snow” is repeated over and over again when discussing the winter weather and incredibly high snow totals that dominate snow country of northern Japan.

Check out the information below in regards to what causes this snowfall and why is it so heavy.



Now despite its name sea effect snow is NOT salty. As we all know when water evaporates from the ocean it leaves any salt behind.

It gets its name from the Sea of Japan, much like Lake effect snow in North America.

Throughout winter we often see winds start to blow in from the north west out of Siberia carrying with it cold dry air over the relatively warm waters of the sea of Japan. Specifically the Thushima current which runs through this region. Check out our video on ocean currents to learn more about this.

When the air is below freezing and there is a difference of at least 13C between the Siberian air mass and the water you may start to see some clouds forming up on satellite imagery indicating sea effect snow is starting to form.

A few other factors need to be in place including little directional wind shear meaning all the winds in the lower atmosphere need to be heading in the same direction which is typically from the north west embedded within a deep artic air mass.

Now what makes Japan so special is that you have the sea effect snow but at the same time upslode or orgraphic lifting comes in to play. When this type of lifting occurs the land or mountains in this case forces the air to move to a higher elevation. Several thermodynamic variables change when air rises. The temperature of the air cools as air is lifted. Thus more air becomes saturated and more snowfall occurs.

Easily in a day in the areas hardest hit by this phenomena can see over 50 cm of snowfall or several feet. Snow depth in Late February to early March across the mountains of Central and Northern Japan can even get as high as 300-400cm. (13ft)

That is why if you are a skier Japan is considered some of the best powder in the world.
For people in Tokyo though you would never realize so much snow is falling to the west unless you went there or heard about it. That is because the same mountains that squeeze out all the moisture also stop it from going east. So when Nagano or Niigata are seeing very heavy snowfall Tokyo will likely be seeing sunny skies.

You need a southern coast low or a low that avoids the mountains to bring snowfall to Tokyo. Thing is those come as the name suggest from the south, that means they are often to warm. Learn more about these storms at the video link.

Finally there is one more phenomena to talk about. Specifically in Hokuriku where some of the heaviest snowfall takes place. And to an extent, people here have north Korea to thank. Reason is often when winds are just right out of the north west a mountain chain here splits the wind and then it rejoins downwind creating one large wind flow of sea effect snow.

Furthermore Hokuriku is the farthest area away from landmasses on the other side of the sea of Japan. That means more water which means more of a moisture source for the snow to be picked up.

So if you like snow, this the place to be all winter. If you are not a fan. Do not head to northern Japan.

Daily update- Friday, January 8, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 08 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 08 JAN

As we wrap up the first work week of 2016, we see that winter has gotten a firm foothold over northern one-third of eastern Asia, and the central one-third is seeing the effects of the season as well. The southern one-third is still very hot and relatively dry. The tropics remain quiet for now, but plenty of showers are served up in a few spots to help remind us that it IS the tropics.


The deep freeze continues to affect the more northerly portions of the north region, with Mongolia, northern China, and eastern Russia never reaching the freezing mark. Beijing and Seoul will both just barely crack freezing, while more southerly locations are just a bit warmer. Tokyo will cool down from recent highs, but will still be the warm spot in the region. Most of the region will see sunny skies, except portions of Japan, who will see residual cloudiness drifting behind a storm system moving away to the east.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -16 (3) -26 (-15) Fair
Vladivostok -4 (25) -15 (5) Fair
Beijing 2 (36) -8 (18) Fair
Seoul 2 (36) -6 (21) Fair
Tokyo 10 (50) 4 (39) Partly Cloudy
Xi’an 7 (45) -3 (27) Fair
Shanghai 8 (46) 1 (34) Fair



Hints of the winter season are evident in the central region as well, as most locations will see afternoon highs at, or below, 20C (68F). Most of the rainfall has cleared out of the eastern sections of the region, save a few showers lingering near Taiwan. To the southwest, moisture being pulled in ahead of a developing storm system in south-central China is bringing clouds and moisture into portions of northern Indochina. Where the rain isn’t falling, skies will be partly cloudy across the region, with a nice day served up to kick off the weekend.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 15 (59) 4 (39) Partly Cloudy
Hong Kong 20 (68) 17 (63) Partly Cloudy
Taipei 17 (63) 14 (57) Scattered Showers
Iwo To 11 (52) 2 (36) Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 21 (70) 18 (64) Scattered Rain



Intense heat continues to affect locations in the southern region, with most of the hottest air being located west of the 110E longitude line. The southern Philippines will heat up considerably today under sunny skies, as will portions of central and southern Indochina. To the south and west, ample moisture will fire up some thunderstorms at the peak of afternoon heating across Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 32 (90) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 34 (93) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Manila 31 (88) 22 (72) Fair
Davao City 34 (93) 23 (73) Fair
Brunei 31 (88) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Singapore 33 (91) 26 (79) Sctd. Thunderstorms



Although another strange low-latitude system is affecting the central Pacific in the form of tropical depression 01C, here in the western pacific, the tropics are very quiet. Numerous intrusions of continental air have dried out the air mass overall, helping to quell any potential activity in the region in the near-term. The I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is silent between 100E and 130E longitude. A “hybrid” trough is affecting the southern Marianas and eastern Micronesia, and is teaming up with moisture from 01C to bring some clouds and showers to the Marshall Islands. A weak pulse of energy is also moving through western Micronesia bringing a few thunderstorms to those locations.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 27 (81) 23 (73) Thunderstorms
Yap 30 (86) 25 (77) Sctd. Thunderstorms
Palau 31 (88) 25 (77) Sctd. Thunderstorms
Chuuk 29 (84) 27 (81) Thunderstorms
Pohnpei 30 (86) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Majuro 29 (84) 26 (79) Cloudy
Wake 27 (81) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy

Have a happy Friday!!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast,, MeteoEarth