Daily update- Monday, January 18, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 18 JAN

Some of the coldest air of the season has moved into the northern region, while the central region sees improving weather and cooler temperatures. The heat stays put in the central as the air gets a bit more humid, and the tropics remain mostly quiet.

NORTH

The latest surge of Siberian air into the region has brought in the coldest air of the season to many parts of the north region.  A complex weather situation has set up over the region, with the main boundary of cold air straddling the Korean peninsula and the Japanese archipelago, while a developing “south coast low” winds up and drives northeast to parallel the Japanese Pacific coastline during the next 24-48 hours. This storm will certainly be a rain-maker for eastern portions of Japan, and it could be a significant snow-producer for the higher terrain of central and northern Honshu and most of Hokkaido. Another, weaker, storm system will slide through northeastern China and eastern Russia, bringing a good shot of snow and gusty winds. Continental locations to the west will be cold, but mostly fair, as high pressure settles into the region.

CENTRAL

After a week of cloudy and rainy weather across the central region, most locations will see a much-improved weather scenario as the latest storm system pulls out of the area. Rain and clouds will linger over Taiwan as the aforementioned “south coast low” pulls away to the northeast. This same system will bring clouds and showers to the southeastern Japanese island group including Iwo To. To the west, inland locations across the region will see cool temperatures, but mostly nice weather, as we kick off the work week.

 SOUTH

Intense heat continues across portions of the south region today as the days slowly get longer. Recent brushes of continental weather systems have helped pull up some very warm air from the south, and also helped create some warm air compression over portions of Indochina and the southern Philippines. Moisture is on the increase as well as the seasonal northeast monsoon pulls in moisture from the east. A trough associated with the new developing storm system off of Japan will have enough momentum to travel south into parts of central Indochina, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the area. Thunderstorms are also likely in Singapore as the hot afternoon sun heats up the moisture. Everyone else in the south should see a nice day with scattered clouds and plenty of warm sunshine.

TROPICS 

The tropics have been quiet for more than a week, and that trend looks to continue for the near-term. The I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) has settled into a low wintertime profile, and easterly wave activity is minimal throughout the WPAC. One ripple is drifting to the west, well south of Micronesia, and the remnant cloud mass from 01C PALI is moving slowly to the west, south of the Marshall Islands. Those remnants will bring some windy conditions to Majuro, but no rain and everyone in the region will see a very nice start to the new week!

Have a wonderful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth