Daily update- Thursday, January 21, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 21 JAN

A new surge of Siberian air starts to make its way into the north region while the central region braces itself for a push of cold air this weekend. It’s still scorching hot in the south, and the tropics are behaving very un-tropically…er…ish.

UPCOMING “SIBERIAN SURGE”

Siberian surge temp graphic

The newest surge of Siberian air is starting to make its way into Mongolia and northern China today, and will quickly drive southward across all of eastern Asia over the next 3-4 days. This air mass will bring significant, changes, especially for more southerly locations, as it is the first strong surge to penetrate the more southern latitudes. 48-hour temperature changes of 10-13C (18-20F) will be common across the region this weekend, especially in the southern locales of the central region. This will be a relatively dry surge as it comes down, but will spawn strong impulses of energy next week as it collides with the much warmer air mass to the south.

NORTH

A complex storm system northeast of Japan is finally starting to exit the region to the northeast. Sea-effect snowfall is still possible in narrow bands along the western coast of Hokkaido, but the rest of the nation should see improving conditions through the day as a secondary front sweeps through. The new “Siberian surge” is starting to impact Mongolia, and northern portions of China, as it begins to slide southward. A combination of events is helping focus clouds and showers in eastern China today, but everyone else will see a relatively pleasant weather scenario.

CENTRAL

Clouds and showers will be prevalent across most of the continental locations of the central region today as weak storm system, ahead of the Siberian surge to the north, pulls some moisture into central China, and the latest storm system to affect the eastern locales of the region moves out of the area to the northeast. This new “Siberian surge’ will start to affect the northern locations of the region tomorrow, and will reach the southern areas of the region on Saturday. The central region will see the greatest impact of this new surge, as cold air has yet to make it this far south thus far this season. Some locations could see a 48-hour temperature change of 12-15C this weekend.

 SOUTH

Temperatures continue to heat up in parts of the south region, especially over southern Indochina and the southern Philippines. The warm air will pile up in the coming days ahead of the “Siberian surge” coming down from the north. The surge will stop just short of most of the south region, but more northerly locations in central Vietnam, northern Cambodia, and the northern Philippines will see some effects with clouds, showers, and slightly lower temperatures. Most locations in the south region will see fair weather today, with a few more clouds around Singapore.

TROPICS 

Conditions across the tropics remain benign as the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) settles well south near the equator, and drier air dominates the region north of 7 degrees north latitude. A few weak ripples of energy are caught up in the general easterly flow, bringing a few showers to the eastern islands of Micronesia this afternoon. Everyone else should see a nice afternoon with scattered clouds and lots of sunshine!

Have an outstanding Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth