Daily update- Thursday, January 28, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 28 JAN

NWPAC outlook, 28 JAN

A new push of colder air is starting to make its way into the north, while clouds and showers dampen spirits in the central region. The south continues to heat up with hints of some relief coming from the tropics next week. 


Temperatures are dropping in Mongolia, northern China, and eastern Russia, as a new rush of colder air makes its way into the area. Moisture is scarce with this new surge, so clouds and rainfall are as well. This new surge will cool temperatures just a bit, and even near levels reached by the previous “Siberian surge” event, but since temperatures are already low, the effect will not be as pronounced. A new storm system is forming in eastern china, and will slide south of Japan over the next 48 hours bringing rainfall to lower elevations and snowfall to the slopes. Most locations south of the new air mass to the north will see a cool, cloudless day, with temperatures just a little bit warmer than yesterday. Shanghai is the lone exception as they deal with the effects of the newly-forming storm to their south.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -19 (2) -34 (-29) Fair
Vladivostok -6 (21) -20 (-4) Fair
Beijing 4 (39) -8 (18) Partly Cloudy
Seoul 5 (41) -3 (27) Partly Cloudy
Tokyo 14 (57) 4 (39) Fair
Xi’an 7 (45) -4 (26) Partly Cloudy
Shanghai 9 (48) 7 (45) Rain



The central region continues to warm up as the air mass moderates. A couple of developing storm systems will keep it wet across much of the central region for the next 7-10 days. The first is forming over southeastern China, typical of this time of year. This storm will deepen and slide to the east-northeast, exiting the region near Taiwan. Southeastern China and Taiwan will feel the brunt off this system. A second system is forming over southwestern China, part of a complex series of low pressure systems over the higher terrain. This new storm is helping pump moisture into the entire region as it deepens and moves eastward. This storm is primarily affecting southern China and northern Indochina, and will pass through the southern reaches of the region as the new cold surge arrives late this week.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 12 (54) -1 (30) Ptly Cloudy & Windy
Hong Kong 18 (64) 17 (63) Rain
Taipei 22 (72) 17 (63) Rain
Iwo To 12 (54) 1 (34) Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 19 (66) 14 (57) Rain



The heat continues to grow across the south as most of the region stays cloud-free with the height of the seasonal northeast monsoon in full effect. One exception is the central Philippines where convergence in the form of a trough, as a result of the recent surge event, remains stalled over the area, helping to focus clouds and showers in a fairly narrow band across the archipelago. This feature is likely to hang around for a few more days before being cleared out by a weak ripple of energy forecast to move in from the tropics early next week. Elsewhere across the south region, heat is the big story, as temperatures across much of the region peaks at near-summertime levels. Aside from the showers in the central Philippines, and a daily dose of thunderstorms in Singapore, the rest of the region will see very few clouds and plentiful sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 34 (93) 22 (72) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 34 (93) 24 (75) Fair
Manila 32 (90) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Davao City 34 (93) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 33 (91) 26 (79) Fair
Singapore 32 (90) 26 (79) Thunderstorms



The tropics have been pretty quiet for the start of the new year, but there are hints that some weak activity may be on the horizon for western portions of the region. An easterly wave is currently tracking along the seasonally-weakened I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) in Micronesia. Long range forecast models are suggesting that a weak area of low pressure could spring up in this vicinity, track to the west-northwest over the weekend, and dissipate in the central Philippines as it collides with the new surge coming in from the northwest early next week. At the very least, it could bring some much-needed rainfall relief, although at the current time, strength outlooks are not suggesting a significant event associated with this area. We will keep an eye on things for you out there, as always. Elsewhere across the tropics, aside from clouds and showers with the new disturbance in Micronesia, the eastern extent of a trough that extends west into the Philippines is draped over the southern Mariana Islands, helping clouds and showers form there. Everyone else in the region will see a warm afternoon, with just a few scattered clouds here and there.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 27 (81) 23 (73) Showers & Windy
Yap 31 (88) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Palau 31 (88) 25 (77) Partly Cloudy
Chuuk 29 (84) 26 (79) Tstorms & Windy
Pohnpei 29 (84) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Majuro 28 (82) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Wake 28 (82) 22 (72) Ptly Cloudy & Windy

Have a superb Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth

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