Weekend update- January 30/31, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 29-30 JAN

A new storm system brings snow to parts of Japan this weekend, while rain continues to fall in the central region. Heat continues to settle into the south, and the tropics have a little action too.

NORTH

A new, weaker, surge of colder air is making its way through the north region at this time, and will press through the entire region by Sunday. A new “south coast low” storm system is bringing lots of rain to eastern China and southern Japan, with fair amounts of snow in the higher elevations. Some snow could fall in the lower elevations, and in eastern portions of Honshu, as the colder air builds in quickly before the storm system can clear out the moisture. Elsewhere across the region, temperatures are rising in the far north, but falling everywhere else as high pressure builds into the region behind the newest surge. This new surge will keep things cool for a couple of days before temperatures start to once again rebound as we head into the new work week. Hints of a new storm system will start to appear in the western portions of the region on Sunday, bringing clouds and snow to some locations of west-central China.

CENTRAL

The latest storm system to affect the region will make its way to the northeast this weekend, but it will be slow to clear out in the region, thanks to the colder air moving in from the northwest. Coastal locations of southeastern China will see a brief break tomorrow, before more clouds and showers return with the new cold surge. Clouds and rain of some sort will affect all other eastern locations of the central region through Sunday, as moisture from the current system lingers ahead of the new cold front. To the west, clouds will build through the day today, with a few showers moving in tomorrow as a new disturbance affects southwestern China. Temperatures in the central region will hold steady through the weekend, and start to fall once again as we head into the new week.

SOUTH

The heat will ease up just a bit across the south this weekend, but it will still be dangerously hot in some areas, especially considering that the start of February is coming up. An old trough associated with last weekend’s very strong cold surge continues to wash out as it drifts back to the north in response to the new surge coming down from mainland Asia. This trough will affect weather across the northern Philippines this weekend, with a chance of showers and a stray thunderstorm possible today. Singapore could also see a few thunderstorms this afternoon, but aside from those areas of precipitation, the remainder of the region will see clear skies to scattered clouds, with lots of warm sunshine to close out the month of January.

TROPICS

After getting some activity in the tropics earlier in the week, it would appear that the disturbance known as 90W INVEST is basically falling apart due to the rather inhospitable atmospheric conditions in the area where it’s located. Lots of dry air, combined with high VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) spells doom for this system as it tracks west along the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Official agencies are not addressing this system at all in their daily bulletins, and computer models continue to settle on a solution that brings a very weak disturbance into the Philippines next week to combine with the incoming cold surge to help spawn much-needed rainfall over the nation. We will keep a close eye on this system and advise you of any changes. 90W WILL bring a good deal of cloudiness, showers, and even some thunderstorms and gusty winds to the central and western islands of Micronesia this weekend. An old trough is draped over the entirety of the region, bringing clouds, showers, and some gusty winds to the southern Marianas and even as far east as Wake Island. The remainder of the regions locations will see just a few scattered clouds and ample sunshine.

Have a superb weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, NRL, JTWC, Weather.com, Intellicast, MeteoEarth