Daily update- Friday, February 12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12 FEB

Evidence of the newest Siberian surge is starting to show in parts of the north region, while the central region heats up more ahead of the new air mass. The south stays hot, with little relief in sight, and the tropics remain silent. 

NORTH

Cold air is starting to move into portions of northwestern China today as the latest Siberian surge flows slowly to the east and south. Temperatures out ahead of the new air mass will continue to warm up before the surge moves through northwestern areas of the region by Saturday and in the southern and eastern areas on Sunday. A storm system is developing over eastern China, and will slide through Korea and Japan this weekend and pull the surge eastward into those locales. Temperatures from this surge will fall nearly 13C in some places across the north region by early next week.

CENTRAL

Temperatures across the central region will continue to warm up ahead of the new surge, which should arrive across most of the central region on Sunday and Monday. Significant temperature changes will take place, especially over the more northerly and easterly locales, while less effect will be felt to the south and west. A storm system forming over eastern china will help pull up some clouds and moisture over eastern portions of the region.

 SOUTH

Portions of the south region continue to see record-setting heat, especially over Cambodia and southern Vietnam. The Philippines will be warm in western provinces, but eastern and southern provinces will see a strong, moist northeasterly flow, with clouds and showers likely for coastal areas. Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia will also see quite a bit of moisture for the warm afternoon sun to transform into clouds and scattered thunderstorms.

TROPICS 

The tropics are still very quiet as we enter the middle of February. Activity along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is widely scattered and unfocused, with a very weak easterly wave located near the Marshall Islands, a second weak wave south of western Micronesia, and a third, slightly stronger wave drifting through Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia. Clouds and showers will be focused a bit in these areas. Clouds and showers will also affect the Mariana Islands and Wake as continental energy slides through both locations.

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth