Daily update- Wednesday, February 17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17 FEB

Temperatures across the north region are holding steady as the winter conveyor belt of storm systems continues to track across the region. The central is seasonably cool as some of the ripples of energy bring down cooler and stable air. Most of the south region keeps heating up, and the tropics remain predominantly quiet. 

NORTH

The north has seen a series of storm systems pass through the region over the past 3 or 4 days, which has helped keep temperatures very cool across the region. The last pair of cold fronts in this series of storm systems will move through Japan today, bringing some rainfall and mountain snowfall to the archipelago nation. More stable air has settled in to the west, helping keep skies free from low-level clouds and precipitation, however, some high clouds associated with the jet stream are passing over portions of central China. And although it is still quite early to forecast beyond a week, there are hints in the computer model forecasts that a VERY significant cold surge could affect the region by month’s end.

CENTRAL

Temperatures are also seasonably cool across the central region and high pressure is keeping the weather nice across the western portions of the region. The frontal system passing through Japan is also trailing back into Taiwan, bringing some clouds and rainfall to the island. Temperatures in west-central and southwestern China are starting to rebound as the atmosphere gets geared up for the next big cold surge which, as described in the previous section, could arrive at the end of the month.

 SOUTH

We are entering the time of the year where the sun’s angle across the southern region continues to increase with each passing day, bringing more direct sunlight to the region. This is resulting in significant heating during the afternoon hours. The seasonal northeast monsoon continues brings in slightly drier air at the mid-levels, keeping the skies mostly cloud-free west of coastal areas of Indochina and the Philippines. The tail-end of the latest cold front to pass through the Philippines has pulled up stationary just to the east of the country, which is helping to manufacture some clouds and showers across coastal areas of the northern two-thirds of the archipelago. Farther south, a more stable, tropical scenario is underway, but without any real energy to stir up the atmosphere, most of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei will see just a few scattered clouds and lots of warm sunshine. The cold surge mentioned in the previous forecasts is also expected to press down into the south region by the end of the month, and although this is a rare occurrence, initial forecasts show it as a definite possibility.

TROPICS 

As one would expect in the ides of February, the tropics are generally quiet, with very little in the way of disturbed weather to watch for. A couple of waves are affecting portions of Micronesia today, and this energy will drift westward into the southern Philippines and Indonesia over the next couple of days, bringing only scattered showers to these areas. Another weak ripple of energy is cruising through the Marshall Islands, also bringing only scattered showers and clouds. The Marianas and Wake are still dealing with waves of continental energy, as the weak cold fronts approach and fizzle out nearby.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth