Archive | February, 2016

Daily update- Friday, February 26, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26 FEB

NWPAC outlook, 26 FEB

The coldest air stays far to the north as the central region warms up and remains cloudy. The south will see another hot day, and the tropics are starting to show some weak signs of life. 

NORTH

The coldest air is holding firm in the northern two-thirds of the north region today, as more southerly locations of eastern China warm up just a bit. The latest, weak storm system is passing through eastern China and Korea today, but will bring little more than a few clouds and a shift in the winds. Another weak system is passing through northern portions of Japan today, bringing a few clouds and a slight chance for rain showers and high elevation snow showers. Temperatures across the region are very reflective of the late winter season, with the very cold air suspended in Mongolia, northern China and eastern Russia, and much warmer temperatures settling into parts of south-central and eastern China. Aside from a few snow showers in these areas, most locales will see a fine day with just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -7 (19) -23 (-9) AM Snow Showers
Vladivostok -3 (27) -18 (0) PM Snow Showers
Beijing 9 (48) -3 (27) Partly Cloudy
Seoul 7 (45) -3 (27) Fair
Tokyo 9 (48) 1 (34) Fair
Xi’an 18 (64) 2 (36) Fair
Shanghai 17 (63) 6 (43) Partly Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

As we get ready to enter the month of March, we find temperatures warming up considerably across much of the central region, ahead of cooler air pooled far to the north. Colder and drier air is located in the mountains of southern China, helping keep a chill in the air there, but elsewhere, springtime warmth is starting to make its presence felt. Taipei will see more rain today, and considerable cloudiness will affect southern China and northern Indochina as the jet stream drags moisture into the region from the west.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 5 (41) 1 (34) Cloudy
Hong Kong 17 (63) 14 (57) Cloudy
Taipei 16 (61) 14 (57) Rain
Iwo To 7 (46) 1 (34) Fair
Hanoi 16 (61) 12 (53) Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

More heat continues to build in the south as the sun’s angle increases with each passing day, lending to longer days and more direct sunlight bearing down on the region. Once again, portions of Cambodia and southern Vietnam will see the warmest temperatures in the region under mostly sunny skies. An influx of moisture from the tropics is moving into the northern two-thirds of the Philippines today, and will likely stick around through the weekend. The moisture plume is rather significant and the seasonal northeast monsoon is working to push it into the archipelago. Showers will be light with this feature, and temperatures will be held down a bit by the associated cloudiness. Aside from a few showers this afternoon in Singapore, the remainder of the south region will see a hot, dry day, with only scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 33 (91) 19 (66) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 35 (95) 24 (75) Fair
Manila 31 (88) 23 (73) Showers
Davao City 34 (93) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 31 (88) 26 (79) Fair
Singapore 33 (91) 26 (79) Showers

 

TROPICS 

Activity in the tropics APPEARS to be increasing, but a quick analysis shows that it is nothing more than a visible reflection of what is likely a pocket of cooler air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Surface wind convergence along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is negligible, as the region continues to be dominated by the strong northeast monsoonal flow of the season. Nevertheless, considerable pockets of cloudiness are present along the ITCZ, stretching eastward from western Micronesia back to the Marshall Islands. Clouds, showers, and possibly even a few scattered thunderstorms are possible today throughout the region as this moisture slides slowly to the west. The more northerly island locations are still dealing with weak waves of continental energy, producing only a few clouds, and occasional windy conditions.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 26 (79) 22 (72) Partly Cloudy
Yap 31 (88) 26 (79) Scattered T-storms
Palau 31 (88) 25 (77) Scattered T-storms
Chuuk 29 (84) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Pohnpei 31 (88) 26 (79) Increasing Clouds
Majuro 29 (84) 27 (81) PM T-storms
Wake 28 (82) 23 (73) Increasing Clouds

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth

Classic Japan Winter Pattern, Weekend Weather Outlook

Feels like winter for a change across Japan this week with sub-zero temperatures during the over night hours in Tokyo and even a passing flurry of snowfall Wednesday night in the metro area dropping around 1cm of wet snow.  Some of you may have even seen it before it swiftly warmed up in the morning.

Tokyo Thur. AM

As for the weekend it looks like decent snowfall in the North across Hokkaido and Tohoku through Friday and Saturday due to back to back low pressure areas moving through the region.

 

Some areas could see up to 20cm of snow but for the most part totals will remain around 5-10cm in to Hokoriku. Enough to re set some of the slopes this coming weekend which would be some fantastic news following the last two weekends above average temperature which brought rain on the slopes for central Honshu.

 

Enjoy the fresh snow now though since next week it looks like another spell of warm air for Japan featuring April to May like temperatures across the country.

 

The big question is how long will the ski / snowboard season last this year. Typical years it extends well in to April for some of the higher elevated resorts but this is not a typical year. As much as I try to be optimistic I fear the end of the season will be similar to the start of the season. Lets hope that is not the case though.

 

JMA has officially announce though warmer than average temperatures are expected this coming spring and summer. Riding along the same theme of last summer and this winter.

Daily update- Thursday, February 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 FEB

NWPAC outlook, 25 FEB

Weak pulses of cooler air continue to roll through the northernmost reaches of eastern Asia and the NWPAC, while the central region remains mired in clouds. The south continues its run of abnormally intense heat, while the tropics serve up another dose of scattered moisture. 

NORTH

As one weather system exits to the northeast of Japan, and the north region, another weaker storm system is rolling through northeastern China and Korea today. This system will reinforce the cooler air in place, and will really amount to nothing more than a wind shift and a feed of new, drier air. Another pulse of cooler air is moving through Mongolia, and will help lower temperatures and bring a few snow showers to the country later this evening. A new wave of moisture riding along the jet stream is moving into the region from the west, and will bring a few more clouds, and possibly some showers, to parts of the region by tomorrow. For today, most locations will see a fine day, with a few scattered clouds amidst the sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar -6 (21) -17 (1) PM Snow Showers
Vladivostok -4 (25) -17 (1) Partly Cloudy
Beijing 6 (43) -6 (21) Partly Cloudy
Seoul 6 (43) -4 (25) Partly Cloudy
Tokyo 6 (43) 1 (34) Partly Cloudy
Xi’an 17 (63) -1 (30) Partly Cloudy
Shanghai 11 (52) 4 (39) Fair

 

CENTRAL

Moisture streaming in along the jet stream continues to roll over most of the central region, and is being aided by ripples of remaining energy associated with a nearby frontal system, helping to bring considerable cloudiness and a few showers, especially across Taiwan and the coastal areas of southeastern China. Another pulse of moisture is also making its way into western portions of the region, bringing showers to central China. Temperatures are cool, held back by the deep cloud cover, but look to rebound in the coming days.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 3 (37) -1 (30) Rain
Hong Kong 16 (61) 13 (55) Cloudy
Taipei 15 (59) 14 (57) Cloudy
Iwo To 8 (47) -1 (30) Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 16 (61) 13 (55) Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

Intense heat continues to bear down on parts of the south region, but has eased off just a bit as compared to the past 2 days. Still, temperatures are very high across portions of Indochina, as the seasonal monsoon rides over the coastal mountain ranges and dries out the air, letting the bright sunshine beam right through. Temperatures are relatively normal across the remainder of the region, with just a few scattered clouds mixed in with the sun.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 34 (93) 21 (70) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 34 (93) 23 (73) Fair
Manila 31 (88) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Davao City 33 (91) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 30 (86) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Singapore 32 (90) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy

 

TROPICS 

Relatively strong convergence along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is helping fire off showers and scattered thunderstorms across many locations in the tropics. The activity is not organized in any way, but is widely scattered across the entire region. Most of the shower activity will be focused in the Marshall Islands and also western Micronesia, where an upper-level low-pressure area continues to slide slowly westward. Temperatures will be warm across the region, with slightly cooler air in the northernmost island locations.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 26 (79) 22 (72) Partly Cloudy
Yap 31 (88) 25 (77) Scattered T-storms
Palau 31 (88) 24 (75) PM Thunderstorms
Chuuk 29 (84) 26 (79) Decreasing Clouds
Pohnpei 29 (84) 26 (79) Decreasing Clouds
Majuro 29 (84) 27 (81) PM Showers
Wake 27 (81) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth

Possible Gustnado Damages 10 Homes in Western Japan

A strong wind was seen in Shimane Prefecture western Japan just prior to sunrise Wednesday morning. At least 10 buildings were damaged including a grocery store where footage of the event was captured.

 

Damage from Gusty Wind

No convective storms are seen on radar at the time of the event but security camera footage does show what appears to be a sudden increase in winds and then calming down. Watch the video here.

report

What this likely indicates is a possible gustnado which can occur in non-convective storms or a cold air funnel.  All night there was no high winds reported outside of a short report about the same time of a gust up to 17kts. That is far shy of winds to cause damage but it could have been apart of a gust front that created a vorticy over the area.

 

Radar at the time of event

No warning was issued on severe weather in the area at the time.