Weekend update- March 12/13, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12-13 MAR

A slow warming trend is starting across the north and central regions, as spring begins to slowly take over. The south remains hot as the humidity builds in as the “summer season” approaches. The tropics remain mostly quiet, with no tropical cyclone development in sight.

NORTH

Temperatures across the north region will continue to go up this weekend and for the foreseeable future, as the shift from winter to spring starts to take shape. The leading edge of the latest Siberian surge has migrated well east into the maritime Pacific Ocean, with another weak pulse of energy tracking to the east over northern Japan, and a second weak impulse rolling eastward through northern China. The new systems will do little in the way of lowering temperatures, but will provide a reinforcing shot of drier air to the region, keeping the weather mostly cloud-free. A few showers could pop up in eastern China on Sunday, as mid-level moisture overrides the cooler air at the surface, squeezing out a sprinkle or two.

CENTRAL

After a brief cool-down in the latter part of the week, temperatures are rebounding quickly across the central region as the sun’s angle increases each day and the daylight hours lengthen.  Remnant moisture from the latest frontal system will hang around southeastern China and Taiwan, bringing a good chance for showers to these areas. Moisture being pulled in from the west by this frontal system will also keep skies cloudy over southern China and northern Vietnam.

 SOUTH

Temperatures in the south are reflective of the changing conditions here as the “summer season” starts to take shape, with the absence of any more continental surges into the region. Aside from a few morning thunderstorms in interior portions of the Southeast Asian peninsula on Sunday, some afternoon thunderstorms in the southern Philippines today, and daily scattered thunderstorms in Malaysia, weather across the region will be dry and quite warm.

TROPICS

The tropics are starting to heat up as well overall, as sea-surface temperatures creep upwards with the lack of significant cloud cover over the region. Weak ripples of energy continue to roll along the depressed I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) affecting the southern Philippines, and in several spots through central and western Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. As has been the case for the entire season, northerly island locations in the region will continue to see influence from continental systems that are clipping the region, with slightly cooler temperatures than the more southerly locations, and plenty of sunshine.

Have a great weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Weather.com, Intellicast, MeteoEarth