Daily update- Thursday, March 17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17 MAR

The north region stays warm as cooler air starts to move in from the north. The central region is holding steady with small changes on the way. Intense heat continues in the south with no relief in sight. And the tropics stay quiet, which is just how we like it. 

NORTH

A fairly potent late winter storm system is moving into the north region from Siberia, with slightly cooler air behind it. The colder air mass has already moved through Mongolia, where a few morning snowflakes will fall. Considerable cloudiness extends to the south and southwest along the incoming frontal boundary, however, the air is quite dry ahead of this system over continental locales, so very little in the way of precipitation is expected in the near-term. Cooler air will settle across much of the region over the next 5 days, helping bring temperatures down to more seasonable levels. A few showers could fall along the eastern shores of China today, as lingering moisture interacts with a weak developing low pressure area just offshore. Everyone else will see plenty of sunshine today with just a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

Warm temperatures across the central region will hold steady today, as slight changes start to shape up for the region as we head into next week. Moisture associated with a developing weak low pressure area just east of Taiwan will bring showers to the island, with clouds and fog extending back to the southeastern Chinese coast. The rest of the region will see just a few clouds today, with plenty of sunshine.

 SOUTH

Intense heat is once again on the menu as the average temperature across the south region will hit 34C (93F), with dangerous heat indices in store for portions of interior Indochina and the Philippines, as the summer season gets an early start over the region. There isn’t much relief in sight for the region, as the seasonal northeast monsoon keeps drier air at the mid-levels flowing in, and an absence of significant surface weather systems keep the lower levels free of lift or instability.

 TROPICS 

Tropical weather-watchers are bored, quite frankly, as an absence of activity along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) keeps the region quiet. This is a far cry from last season, when we were already into our 4ht named system of the year, and on the heels of a typhoon forming at the end of the month. There is nothing even closely resembling that this season, and in fact, conditions in the tropics are seasonably quiet, and look to remain so for the next 10 days. The Marshall Islands will see a few more clouds today as a weak pulse of energy moves into the area from the east. Northerly locations within the region are still seeing influence from the passing continental weather systems, keeping temperatures a bit cooler than locations to the south.

Have a thoughtful Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth