Archive | March 23, 2016

Daily update- Wednesday, March 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 MAR

NWPAC outlook, 23 MAR

Temperatures hold steady across the north region as inclement weather moves through some areas. The central region will also see quite a bit of cloudiness and rain today. The heat continues for the south, but the prospects of some relief this weekend remain good. The tropics show some signs of life, but no development is expected. 


Temperatures across the north are holding steady as high pressure remains in control over most of the region. A stationary frontal boundary is draped over portions of northwest China and Mongolia, and becomes active over northeastern China and Korea. This boundary is bringing a few clouds and showers to these areas, but the air mass behind this system has moderated quite a bit, so will do little in the way of changing temperatures as it moves through in the next 48 hours. The leading edge of this air mass is bringing some brisk northwest winds to western prefectures of central Japan, and as the moisture gets a lift from the topography, we find a few snow showers falling in the higher elevations, much to skiing enthusiast’s delight. This moisture remains intact as it slides over the Japanese Alps and will allow for a few showers to fall over Tokyo. The remainder of the region will see a nice day with just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 8 (46) -8 (18) Fair
Vladivostok 7 (45) -4 (25) Partly Cloudy
Beijing 14 (57) 0 (32) Fair
Seoul 13 (55) 0 (32) Fair
Tokyo 16 (61) 6 (43) Scattered Showers
Xi’an 14 (57) 6 (43) Scattered Showers
Shanghai 13 (55) 6 (43) Cloudy



Temperatures in the central region are fluctuating just a bit as changes on the way take shape in the form of weak impulses of energy sliding through the region. Rain is likely over most of southwestern and southern China, and a few thunderstorms are likely in northern portions of Vietnam. A new surge of cooler air is forecast to move into the area by the end of the week, helping to clear things out a bit and cool of temperatures.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 21 (70) 6 (43) Periods of Rain
Hong Kong 19 (66) 13 (55) Fog & Showers
Taipei 19 (73) 13 (55) Periods of Rain
Iwo To 17 (63) 4 (39) Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 24 (75) 17 (63) Thunderstorms



Average temperatures across the south region will peak near 34C (93F), with the most intense heat once again locked in over interior Indochina. Moisture is sparse across the northern portions of the region, allowing the ever-increasing intensity of the sun to beam down and really heat things up. As I mentioned yesterday, some relief may be on the way for portions of northern Vietnam and the northern Philippines, as what will likely be the season’s last continental surge looks to impact these areas over the weekend. Aside from a few thunderstorms in Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, and parts of Malaysia, everyone else will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 38 (100) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 33 (91) 25 (77) Fair
Manila 34 (93) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy
Davao City 33 (91) 24 (75) Fair
Brunei 32 (90) 26 (79) Sctd Thunderstorms
Singapore 34 (93) 27 (81) Thunderstorms



Some signs of life are starting to show up in the tropics, as a strong area of convergence slides along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) over the Marshall Islands and eastern Micronesia. Although this feature looks impressive on satellite, it’s really much ado about nothing, as shower activity is scarce and absolutely no development is expected. The Mariana Islands will see a bit of a warm-up ahead of another push of continental air moving through tonight, which will help fire off a few evening and overnight showers. Wake Island remains cooler than more southerly tropical locations due to continental influences as well. The remainder of the region will see picture-perfect weather with warm temperatures and partly cloudy skies.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 31 (88) 23 (73) PM Showers
Yap 33 (91) 25 (77) Partly Cloudy
Palau 31 (88) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Chuuk 31 (88) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Pohnpei 31 (88) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Majuro 31 (88) 27 (81) Cloudy
Wake 24 (75) 23 (73) Partly Cloudy

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast,, MeteoEarth

Late Winter Cold Surge to bring blast of cold air across East Asia this week

For those who want one last taste of winter this spring you may be in luck. The forecast points towards a clear cold surge that will usher in January temperatures as far south as Vietnam and the Northern Philippines later this week.

The storm that will trigger this is a potent low pressure area that has been bringing flooding conditions to south eastern China. Some locations in Guangdong province have seen well over 200mm of rain in the past 48hrs. The result has been river flooding damaging crops and submerging hundreds of homes. CCTV reports at least 38,000 people have been effected.

Flood 2

Since the ground here is already saturated the threat of more flooding will continue through Wednesday and Thursday until the rain lets up.


Key thing to note is after it impacts China it will head east instead of North East. Meaning cool air will spill in all the way from Siberia in to the tropics ushering in a late winter ( or early spring ) cold surge across the region.


Temperatures as far south as Hanoi and Baguio in the northern Philippines will see a considerable drop. Hanoi will go from 27 for the high on Wednesday to just 17 on Thursday.


This also means one last burst of sea effect snowfall across Japan.  Some areas mostly in Niigata, Nagano and Aormori could see over 30cm of snow in to Friday. Western Hokkaido may see up to 10-20cm or more if the winds are correct.

sea effect

After this surge passes conditions will rebound to more spring like temperatures in to next week.


Perfect time to Hanami or go “flower viewing” across Japan for the cherry blossoms.