Daily update- Friday, March 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 MAR

The weather settles down in the north region as the latest surge of cooler air settles into the central region and portions of the south region. The tropics look like they are getting busy, but no development is expected anytime soon. 

NORTH

Temperatures across the north region will edge upwards over the next few days, as the weather quiets down in the region following a very busy week. The latest storm system has moved well to the east of the region, and only a few clouds remain over the eastern and southern locales, due mostly to mid and upper-level moisture associated with the jet stream. Most locations in the north region will see a beautiful day, with comfortable temperatures and plenty of sunshine.

CENTRAL

General cloudiness and rainy conditions persist over Taiwan and northern Vietnam as the latest surge of cooler air presses to the southeast. Skies are clearing across portions of central and southeastern China as high pressure builds in behind the latest weather system. Temperatures are rebounding to the west, as return flow from the high pressure system brings in some warmer air from the south. The remainder of the region will see cooler temperatures today, but as the air mass moderates over the weekend, readings will start to increase slowly this weekend.

 SOUTH

After many days of searing heat over parts of the south region, some relief has moved into northern locales, thanks to the late-season surge of cooler air from the north. As the cooler and drier air presses southward, more warm air ahead of it will affect portions of southern Vietnam and the Philippines, keeping temperatures quite warm over these locations. The northern one-third of the Philippines could see a few showers pop up later this afternoon as the intense sun, and the incoming surge boundary, gives the atmosphere a bit of a lift. A few scattered thunderstorms could also fall near Singapore and Malaysia as tropical moisture rolls through from east to west. The remainder of the region will see lots of warm sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

 TROPICS 

Moisture is building across the eastern half of the tropics, and there’s where we find a couple of ripples of energy riding along the slowly strengthening I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Neither of these areas is expected to develop into anything organized, so mostly just a few showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Marshall Islands and eastern Micronesia.

Some have been asking about the difference between this year and last, when we had our first typhoon forming at this point in the season. Traditionally speaking, following a strong El Nino event, E.N.S.O. conditions return to neutral, getting the season off to a normal start. In every case, the trend is for things to get very active during the peak months. We anticipate that this will be the case this year, with development not very likely for the next 30 days or so. If conditions continue to improve over the region, then we will likely have to start really watching things closely by the end of next month. We will put out a full tropical season 2016 prediction sometime soon, so stay tuned.

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, HKO, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, Weather.com, MeteoEarth