Weekend update- March 26/27, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26/27 MAR

The rebound is on for the north region as the central region holds steady to cooling slightly. Portions of the south are seeing a break in the intense heat and the tropics look just a tad busier today.

NORTH

Temperatures will trend upwards this weekend across the north region, as return flow for high pressure pumps in warmer air from the south. A weak cold front is draped over Mongolia, and will slowly slide southeastward over the coming days. The entire north region, south of this frontal system, will see a great weekend, with fair to partly cloudy skies and warm spring-like afternoon highs.

CENTRAL

Changeable weather conditions persist over the central region, as residual moisture from the latest storm system, and the jet stream, help bring some cloudiness and showers to parts of the region. Temperatures will hold steady across the region this weekend, as the air mass associated with the latest surge moderates a bit. A new weather system to the west will help kick up some showers in west-central China and bring clouds to northern Vietnam on Sunday. A few showers will also fall across portions of eastern China and Taiwan on Sunday.

 SOUTH

A new late-season surge of continental air is slowly working its way through the Philippines this weekend, bringing some much-needed relief from the heat to the northern half of Luzon. However, the remainder of the region continues to bask in the summer-like heat, with no end in sight. Warm air advection south of the surge will keep it hot over Southeast Asia and the southern Philippines, and increased moisture riding along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) will bring some rainfall to the southern Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, and Malaysia through the weekend.

TROPICS

The tropics appear to be ramping up in terms of general activity as moisture increases south of the 10^th parallel region-wide. MIMIC-TPW (Total Precipitable Water) loops show a plume of moisture extending to the northwest from the equator, between 150E and 135E, migrating westward along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). This moisture will impact western locales early next week, enhancing rainfall possibilities. Satellite photos indicate a series of weak waves of convergence in the region, one over Indonesia and Brunei, the second over western Micronesia, a third in Eastern Micronesia, and the last out near the Marshall Islands. The ripples of energy will enhance rainfall possibilities this weekend for the entire region, but long-range computer models are showing nothing in the way for development.

Have a great weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Weather.com, Intellicast, MeteoEarth