Archive | April, 2016

Weekend update- April 30-May 1, 2016

NWPAC outlook 30 APR-01 MAY

NWPAC outlook 30 APR-01 MAY

The seasons are clashing over the north region this weekend with record heat AND snow. The central region continues to deal with the onset of the East Asian Monsoon, but gets a bit of a break this weekend. The south gets some relief from the record-setting heat as moisture and heat increase across the tropics.

NORTH

The seasons are meeting over the north region where only 1045 km (649 mi) separates record setting summer heat in the mid 30’s, from snowfall and winter’s chill in the single digits. Parts of interior northern and central China will see record-setting, or near it, daytime highs through the weekend. While to the north over extreme northern China and Mongolia, a surge of cold Siberian air will bring in much cooler temperatures and a chance for snow in the northernmost locales. Aside from unsettled weather in locations far to the north, the remainder of the region will see lots of very warm sunshine with an occasional passing cloud.

City Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Ulaanbaatar 14 57 7 45 Periods of rain Snow Showers
Vladivostok 12 54 12 52 Cloudy Sctd. Showers
Beijing 32 90 34 93 Fair Fair
Seoul 21 70 25 77 Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Tokyo 19 66 23 73 Fair Fair
Xi’an 34 93 34 93 Fair Partly Cloudy
Shanghai 25 77 26 79 Fair Fair

 

CENTRAL

The latest frontal system to pass through the central region has pulled up stationary just to the south, but is far enough away to allow for some clearing of the incessant cloud-cover and rainfall associated with the seasonal monsoon that is getting underway. Taipei will be the lone exception, as lingering moisture gets a lift in the mountainous terrain to squeeze out some showers. An impulse of energy moving through the region will bring some scattered thunderstorms to southern China and northern Vietnam on Saturday and to the coastal of southeastern China on Sunday. Temperatures will be seasonably warm across the region this weekend, with rainy areas seeing a bit of a dip as clouds block out the ever-intensifying sunshine.

City Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming 27 81 27 81 Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Hong Kong 26 79 27 81 Partly Cloudy Sctd. T-Storms
Taipei 28 82 28 82 Sctd. Showers Sctd. Showers
Naha 24 75 26 79 Partly Cloudy Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 28 82 31 88 Sctd. T-Storms Partly Cloudy

 

SOUTH

An increase of moisture from the tropics is bringing much-needed relief from the heat to parts of the south region this weekend. Energy from a weak system passing to the north will propagate southward into interior portions of the Southeast Asian peninsula and bring about a good chance for scattered thunderstorms at the peak of midday heating. A stationary cold front is stalled out over the northern Philippines, and will combine with tropical moisture moving through to fire off some occasionally heavy thunderstorms in some spots. Plentiful tropical moisture over areas to the south will also help fuel afternoon thunderstorms, from the southern Philippines all the way west to Malaysia.

City Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap 36 97 34 93 Sctd. T-Storms Sctd. T-Storms
Ho Chi Minh 36 97 36 97 Partly Cloudy Sctd. T-Storms
Manila 35 95 35 95 Sctd. T-Storms Partly Cloudy
Davao City 33 91 32 90 Sctd. T-Storms Sctd. T-Storms
Brunei 33 91 34 93 Sctd. T-Storms Sctd. T-Storms
Singapore 33 91 32 90 Sctd. T-Storms Partly Cloudy

 

TROPICS

The I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) appears to be ramping up slowly, almost methodically, as we advance through the spring “tropic-warming” months. The region of warmest S.S.T.’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) continue to spread and grow region-wide, as the sunshine really heats things up without much cloud-cover to help moderate the beaming intensity.

NWPAC SST's 30, APR

NWPAC SST’s 30, APR

A few areas to note are located within the tropics this weekend. From west to east, we first find a wave, and plume of moisture, drifting across the Philippines, interacting with a stalled continental frontal system over the northernmost island of Luzon. There’s no chance for development of this system, but it could launch a few strong thunderstorms over northern parts of the archipelago, especially today. Part of this wave, or trough, extends back to the southeast and will help provide some energy for thunderstorms to develop in the southern part of the nation as well. As we travel east, we find another ripple of energy located south of Chuuk Island in Micronesia. The satellite looks impressive, but forecast models do nothing with this system, other than slide it through the region as a weak tropical wave. The final area is a wave of energy passing from the Marshall Islands into eastern Micronesia. It’s a rather compact area of disturbed weather, and although it shows no signs of development, it will bring plenty of showers and thunderstorms to Micronesia over the coming days.

City Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam 31 88 32 90 Thunderstorms Partly Cloudy
Yap 33 91 33 91 Thunderstorms Sctd. T-Storms
Palau 32 90 32 90 Thunderstorms Sctd. T-Storms
Chuuk 31 88 30 86 Sctd. T-Storms Partly Cloudy
Pohnpei 29 84 29 84 Sctd. T-Storms Thunderstorms
Majuro 28 82 28 82 Thunderstorms Partly Cloudy
Wake 26 79 26 79 Fair Fair

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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Daily update- Thursday, April 28, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 28 APR

NWPAC outlook, 28 APR

A pair of storm systems helps dry out the air a bit in the north and central regions, while clouds and showers increase across the south and the heat and moisture ramps up in the tropics. 

NORTH

A fairly strong storm system is crossing Japan today before making its way out to sea tonight. Plenty of cloudiness and rainfall accompany this system, especially over Japan. A second, drier system, is pushing to the south through northern China, Korea, and eastern Russia, and will combine with the first system offshore of Japan, but not before clearing things out a bit across the eastern portion of the region. Temperatures are warming back up today, as the new air mass is drier, but not much cooler.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

16 1 61 34

Periods of rain

Vladivostok

16 3 61 37

Scattered showers

Beijing

28 11 82 52

Partly cloudy

Seoul

22 9 72 48

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

19 16 68 61

Periods of rain

Xi’an

30 13 86 55

Fair

Shanghai

23 12 73 54

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Clouds and showers have pulled out of most of the central region today, with a few wet spots lingering in Taiwan as the frontal boundary pulls up stationary just offshore. More energy is moving in from the west, bringing a few clouds and showers to southern China and northern Indochina. Temperatures will warm up to near-seasonal levels for most of the region under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

26 12 79 54

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

28 23 82 73

Partly cloudy

Taipei

23 17 73 63

Scattered showers

Naha

23 19 73 66

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

27 23 81 73

Scattered showers

 

 SOUTH 

Fortunately for the south region, the intense heat is giving way to the added moisture in the atmosphere, which is helping bring down the temperatures from the hazardous levels of recent weeks. It’s still dangerously hot over the region, however, especially over inland portions of Indochina and the northern Philippines. Increased moisture coming in from the east will help better the rain chances across the Philippines today, while moisture sliding in from the west will help bring some rainfall relief to parts of the Southeast Asian peninsula. Tropical moisture is also sliding through the southern portions of the region, with a good chance for thunderstorms in place across Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

37 29 99 84

Partly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

35 28 95 82

Scattered thunderstorms

Manila

35 26 95 79

Scattered thunderstorms

Davao City

32 25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms

Brunei

33 26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms

Singapore

32 27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms

 

 TROPICS 

Activity in the tropics remains muted while the heat and moisture continue to increase across the region. A few weak waves are helping fire of some showers and thunderstorms over many parts of the region today. The best news of all is the weak wave that has held together and is moving across the Philippines, helping to increase rain chances across the parched archipelago. Temperatures will be warm across the region, but will be moderated by considerable cloudiness throughout.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32 26 90 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

32 26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms

Palau

30 27 86 81

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

31 27 88 81

Thunderstorms

Pohnpei

31 25 88 77

Scattered thunderstorms

Majuro

28 27 82 81

Mostly cloudy

Wake

26 24 79 75

Partly cloudy

Have a thoughtful Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

Daily update- Wednesday, April 27, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 27 APR

NWPAC outlook, 27 APR

Temperatures cool just a bit in the north region while clouds and showers dominate most of the central region. More heat is in store for the south as the tropics show a little life but nothing of real importance. 

NORTH

A strong impulse of energy will slide out of eastern China, south of South Korea, and into southwestern Japan today, bringing in plenty of clouds and showers. The cloudy canopy is helping to keep temperatures down from the near-record levels they have seen over the past 3 days in parts of eastern China and Korea. This storm system will team up with a slow-moving cold front over central Japan tonight and tomorrow and bring heavy rain to some parts of the archipelago. Conditions are much better to the west and north, where warm spring temperatures abound under partly cloudy skies.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 17 (63) 2 (36) Partly Cloudy
Vladivostok 11 (52) 2 (36) Partly Cloudy
Beijing 20 (68) 11 (52) Cloudy
Seoul 19 (66) 10 (50) Cloudy
Tokyo 19 (66) 15 (59) Scattered Showers
Xi’an 29 (84) 12 (54) Fair
Shanghai 63 (66) 13 (55) Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The seasonal east Asian monsoon, also known as the méiyǔ or plum rains, is starting to set up very well as continuous pulses of energy from the west slide over the boundary between the continental air to the north and the humid, tropical air to the south that is slowly propagating northward. The entire region will see a good chance for showers and occasional thunderstorms today as another pulse of energy moves offshore of eastern China, dragging a weak trough through southeastern China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands. This trough will be the focal points of the activity in the region, while areas to the west and south will deal with moisture associated with new energy coming in from the west.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 24 (75) 11 (52) Scattered Showers
Hong Kong 28 (82) 24 (75) Sctd Thunderstorms
Taipei 29 (84) 21 (70) Thunderstorms
Naha 27 (81) 20 (68) Thunderstorms
Hanoi 26 (79) 23 (73) Sctd Thunderstorms

 

 SOUTH

The heat stays in place in the south, but the good news is, most locations will see air temperatures stay below 40C (104F) today, however, when factoring in the humidity that continues to build into the region, we could see indices well in excess of 45C (113F) across Laos and interior locations within Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the northern Philippines. Very humid, tropical air is building in the southern half of the region, where the best chances for rain can be found.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 39 (102) 29 (84) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 37 (99) 28 (82) Partly Cloudy
Manila 36 (97) 26 (79) Fair
Davao City 33 (91) 25 (77) Sctd Thunderstorms
Brunei 32 (90) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Singapore 32 (90) 27 (81) Thunderstorms

 

 TROPICS 

The tropics are still showing some signs of things to come, as a daily dose of direct sunshine heats up the ocean and helps the humidity build across the region. The trough mentioned yesterday continues to track westward in a strong fetch of easterlies associated with the trade winds and I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). It’s still located in far western Micronesia, extending from NW to SE between longitude 127.0E-141.0E, and latitude 13.0N-4.0N. This system is expected to remain weak as it slows down in the next day or so and dissipates in a weak surge of energy from the north. Another area that looks impressive on satellite is far to the east in the Marshall Islands. Although this area will be responsible for clouds and showers, no development is expected at any point in the foreseeable future. Due to the building moisture and intense sunshine, showers and thunderstorms are a good bet just about anywhere throughout the tropical region below 10 degrees north latitude, with the Mariana Islands and Wake Island being the exceptions.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 31 (88) 25 (77) Fair
Yap 33 (91) 26 (79) Sctd Thunderstorms
Palau 30 (86) 27 (81) Thunderstorms
Chuuk 31 (88) 27 (81) Thunderstorms
Pohnpei 32 (90) 27 (81) Thunderstorms
Majuro 28 (82) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Wake 26 (79) 24 (75) Fair

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth