Archive | April 4, 2016

Daily update- Tuesday, April 5, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 05 APR

NWPAC outlook, 05 APR

A spring storm system pulls away from the north region, leaving behind warm temperatures, as the warm air stays locked in throughout the central region. More heat is on tap in the south, while the tropics heats up as well and forecasts hint of the first activity of the season. 

NORTH

The latest spring storm system is moving to the east, well offshore of Japan. The associated frontal system extends back to the southwest over the Ryuku Islands. Moisture is streaming in from the west as another weak system gets set to form over eastern China later tonight and slide offshore towards southern Japan tomorrow. Skies will be cloudy in the southern and eastern portions of the region, while locations to the north and west will see lots of sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 10 (50) -3 (27) Fair
Vladivostok 13 (55) -1 (30) Partly Cloudy
Beijing 25 (77) 7 (45) Fair
Seoul 18 (64) 4 (39) Fair
Tokyo 14 (57) 10 (50) Cloudy
Xi’an 13 (55) 8 (46) Scattered Showers
Shanghai 17 (63) 12 (54) Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Clouds and moisture will prevail over the northern third of the central region today, as a weak storm system develops in the evening and overnight hours. Cloudy and foggy conditions will develop over southeastern China as this system develops.  The remainder of the region will see warm afternoon highs with lots of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 22 (72) 13 (55) Scattered T-Storms
Hong Kong 24 (75) 20 (68) Cloudy & Foggy
Taipei 27 (81) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Iwo To 24 (75) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy
Hanoi 30 (86) 22 (72) Partly Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

More heat is on tap for the south region, as the days get longer and the warm sunshine gets more time to heat things up. The easterly flow is combining with a wet southwesterly flow across Indochina, and is trucking in a good deal of moisture across the Philippines, so some scattered showers are possible throughout the archipelago today, especially in the southern two-thirds of the nation. Singapore and Malaysia could also see some scattered thunderstorms at the peak of afternoon heating. The remainder of the region will stay hot and dry with just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 37 (99) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 33 (91) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Manila 35 (95) 25 (77) AM Clouds/PM Sun
Davao City 34 (93) 24 (75) Scattered Showers
Brunei 33 (91) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Singapore 32 (90) 27 (81) Scattered T-Storms

 

 TROPICS 

The tropics are heating up as well, in more ways than one, as longer exposure to the direct sunshine heats up the ocean and the atmosphere across the region. The G.F.S. (Global Forecasting System) computer weather models have been persistently showing the development of a weak area of low pressure later this week in western Micronesia, which will drift west-northwestward towards the Philippines. This feature may be taking shape in the form of a concentrated area of convergence along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) in eastern Micronesia, where clouds and thunderstorms will be scattered about this afternoon. The Marianas and Wake Island could see a few showers as well as a continental air mass impacts both locations. The remainder of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 31 (88) 26 (79) Scattered Showers
Yap 33 (91) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Palau 28 (82) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Chuuk 30 (86) 27 (81) Thunderstorms
Pohnpei 33 (91) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Majuro 28 (82) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Wake 24 (75) 22 (72) Scattered Showers

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

TROPICAL LOW IS THE FIRST SIGN OF ANYTHING IN THE TROPICS IN MONTHS

The tropics have been seasonably calm (for once) the last few months. But for the first time this year it looks like a ripple in the tropics could pop up later this week. Michael has been mentioning this in his daily updates since late last week but today I have decided to update the tropical threat map and make a video to reflect this potential. Right now I put it as a “low to slight risk”. So no need to worry immediately.. just keeping an eye on this blimp in the tropics.

ASCAT Imagery shows a slight rotation in winds in the area, nothing to get excited about but its there.

tropical

Also note that JTWC has put this out as a invest area with JMA making no mention of it just yet. It is an area of cloud cover though located well east of the Philippines with some numerical guidance showing a little development. In the end it could be great news for the drought stricken Philippines.

Tropical Risk (1)

Daily update- Monday, April 4, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 04 APR

NWPAC outlook, 04 APR

A spring storm will barrel through the eastern half of the north region and bring a few clouds and showers to the central region as well. Heat continues to be the big story in the south region, while the tropics start to show the season’s first possible signs of life. 

NORTH

A healthy spring storm system is pushing through eastern China, Korea, and Japan today, with the biggest impact to be felt in the southern half of the Japanese archipelago. Clouds and rain showers will also impact parts of west-central China as moisture from the west moves in. Temperatures are rebounding a bit in Mongolia, northern China, and eastern Russia, ahead of another cool-down mid-week. The remainder of the region will see plenty of warm sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 9 (48) -6 (21) Fair
Vladivostok 11 (52) -2 (28) Fair
Beijing 23 (73) 7 (45) Fair
Seoul 19 (66) 3 (37) Fair
Tokyo 18 (64) 11 (52) Periods of Rain
Xi’an 13 (55) 8 (46) Periods of Rain
Shanghai 17 (63) 10 (50) Partly Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

A cold front extending to the west associated with the spring storm to the north will help focus some clouds and energy over Taiwan and points east today, as high pressure builds in to the west and clears things out a bit. The air behind the frontal system is still quite warm, so temperatures across the region will hold steady compared to previous day’s readings. Aside for the unsettled weather to the east, the remainder of the region will see pretty good weather, with plenty of sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 26 (79) 13 (55) Fair
Hong Kong 24 (75) 20 (68) Partly Cloudy
Taipei 25 (77) 20 (68) Scattered T-Storms
Iwo To 24 (75) 21 (70) Scattered Showers
Hanoi 27 (81) 22 (72) Partly Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

Torrid heat continues over the south region today, but it’s not quite as hot as it has been over the past couple of weeks. The sun will shine brightly through scattered clouds over the northern four-fifths of the region, with all moisture relegated to the southernmost locales due to ripples of tropical energy moving through.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 36 (97) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 33 (91) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Manila 34 (93) 25 (77) Partly Cloudy
Davao City 34 (93) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 32 (90) 26 (79) Scattered T-Storms
Singapore 32 (90) 27 (81) Thunderstorms

 

 TROPICS 

Signs of life are building in the tropics, as the atmosphere and the water heat up across the region. Long range computer forecast models persist in showing a very weak LPA developing in Micronesia later this week, and moving west-northwestward towards the Philippines as it maintains minimal strength, and the weakening as it approaches the archipelago early next week. At best, this may bring some much-needed rainfall to the Philippines…at worst it will fizzle out completely in the very dry air mass entranced over the western section of the region. We will keep an eye on things and keep you updated.

Tropical Risk (1)

Elsewhere, general tropical convergence continues along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) region-wide; so many locations can expect a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 31 (88) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Yap 33 (91) 26 (79) Fair
Palau 28 (82) 27 (81) Thunderstorms
Chuuk 31 (88) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Pohnpei 28 (82) 26 (79) Thunderstorms
Majuro 28 (82) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Wake 24 (75) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy

Have a motivating Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth