Weekend update- April 16/17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 16/17 APR

NWPAC outlook, 16/17 APR

Unsettled weather slides across parts of the north and central regions this weekend as the seasonal East Asian monsoon starts to get better established. In the south region, more intense heat is on tap for this weekend, while it stays hot, but quiet, in the tropics.


The seasonal “plum rains” associated with the developing East Asian Monsoon, also known as 梅雨, or méiyǔ in Chinese; 梅雨, tsuyu, or baiu in Japanese; 장마, or jangma in Korean, and затяжные, or zatyazhnie in Russian, is starting to become more of a fixture across eastern Asia as one ripple after another of cold air comes down from Siberia and slams into the warm, tropical air starting to edge northward into the region. The latest pulse of energy will work its way out of the central region and slide along the eastern seaboard of China, through Korea, and into the Sea of Japan this weekend. Clouds and showers will be on tap for eastern China, Korea, eastern Russia, and much of Japan through Sunday.  Temperatures are still quite cold in Mongolia, where snow showers have fallen for the past 24 hours, but go up quickly as you travel south. Just about everyone will see a bit of rain this weekend, with the exception of north-central China, where partly cloudy skies will prevail.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Ulaanbaatar 3 (37) 4 (39) Snow Sh/Pt Cloudy
Vladivostok 9 (48) 10 (50) Rain/Rain
Beijing 22 (72) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Seoul 22 (72) 14 (57) Rain/Sct Showers
Tokyo 19 (66) 20 (68) Partly Cloudy/Rain
Xi’an 23 (73) 22 (72) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy
Shanghai 23 (73) 21 (70) Sct Showers/Fair



The seasonal “plum rains” associated with the developing East Asian Monsoon, also known as 梅雨, or méiyǔ in Chinese; 梅雨, tsuyu, or baiu in Japanese; 장마, or jangma in Korean, and затяжные, or zatyazhnie in Russian, are even more prevalent in the central region, where the clash between the seasons is taking place as hot, tropical air migrates slowly northward to clash with incoming cooler air from northerly latitudes. Another clash will spawn off a storm system that will slide out of the northeastern portion of the central region this weekend, but most of the energy will be to the north, so only clouds and few light showers are on tap for coastal locations of the central region. A pulse of cooler air will roll through the western deserts and high country, cooling off temperatures a bit, while tropical heat settles into parts of southern china and northern Vietnam.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Kunming 27 (81) 20 (68) Pt Cloudy/Sct T-Stm
Hong Kong 27 (81) 27 (81) Ptly Cloudy/Cloudy
Taipei 29 (84) 24 (75) Ptly Cloudy/Cloudy
Iwo To 24 (75) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Hanoi 34 (93) 32 (90) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy



Intense heat continues across the south region, and whereas the temperatures will remain elevated until the onset of the seasonal Southeast Asian monsoon, it would appear that levels will start to decrease ever so slowly over the coming days into a more bearable level. Average temperatures across the region will settle in at around 36C (97F) this weekend, which is still darn hot by anyone’s standards. Interior locations of the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand will see the hottest weather, with heat indices nearing 47C (117F) in some spots. Rainfall will be relegated to the most southerly locations within the region, affecting Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore, while everyone else sees lots of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Siem Reap 40 (104) 40 (104) Fair/Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 36 (97) 36 (97) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy
Manila 36 (97) 35 (95) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Davao City 35 (95) 34 (93) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy
Brunei 33 (91) 34 (93) Sct T-storms/Fair
Singapore 34 (93) 34 (93) Sct T-storm/T-storm



The tropics are still very quiet, and we expect the region to stay that way for the foreseeable future. The I.T.C.Z. (inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is still quite depressed, in terms of activity and location, and while SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) continue to exist in the favorable zone, there is a profound lack of convergence or deep moisture within the region. Expect more of the same this weekend, with a weak ripple of energy located out near the eastern islands of Micronesia, and another pulse moving through western Micronesia. The remainder of the region will see lots of bright, warm sunshine for beach activities.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Guam 31 (88) 31 (88) Ptly Cloudy/Ptly Cloudy
Yap 33 (91) 33 (91) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Palau 31 (88) 31 (88) Rain/Partly Cloudy
Chuuk 31 (88) 31 (88) Fair/Fair
Pohnpei 31 (88) 29 (84) Sctd Shwrs/Sctd Shwrs
Majuro 28 (82) 28 (82) Ptly Cloudy/Ptly Cloudy
Wake 26 (79) 26 (79) Ptly Cloudy/Ptly Cloudy

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth



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