Archive | April 18, 2016

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala Lingers Off Of Madagascar

A powerful cyclone continues to swirl off the Northern Coast of Madagascar this week. At one power the US Militarys Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated the storm an equivalent of a Cat 5 Typhoon while the MeteoFrance out of La Reunion (The Official Warnings on the Storm) show the storm as a “Very Intense Tropical Cyclone” with winds sustained at 222kph Tuesday Morning.

 

JTWC WARNING

The storms track is not 100% certain at this time as a lack of steering flow is causing it to wobble back east then west again in the forecast. Really skirting the coastline of Madagascar in the process. Good news while all this is happening it should continue to weaken, the slow movement combined with outer rain bands could bring some heavy rainfall and possible flooding along the northern coastline of the island.

 

NOAA IMAGE

NOAA IMAGE

Images of this storm at its peak is rather impressive and is why despite it being in the Indian Ocean and not in the Western Pacific I felt compelled to write a quick update on this beast.

 

In February of 2015 the country was hit by severe floods killing 14 people and leaving 24,000 homeless. “Photo Below”.

2015 Flooding

Kumamoto and Earthquake Hit Area Forecast

Tremors continue across Western Japan at the start of the work week today forcing already weak structures to collapse and loosened ground to slide.

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From a weather standpoint the loose ground combined with heavy rains on Saturday pushed several hill sides to the breaking point resulting in massive land and mudslides.

Over 50 were reported in the area with the largest washing out a suspension bridge and damaging homes.

 

Today the weather is much better with light rain in the morning but clearing by the afternoon in Kumamoto.  The biggest impact from weather in to Tuesday will be cool temperatures through the night hours. With many people staying outside due to fear of aftershocks many will be dangerously cold as temperatures drop to just 7C in to Tuesday morning in Kumamoto.

3day

Good news is that sunnier skies during the day should dominate through Wednesday, but by Thursday another low pressure area moving in out of China will bring an additional bout of rainfall to the quake effected region. More landslides are possible when this occurs, albeit the rainfall should not be as intense as Saturdays the threat is still there.

 

96hr rainfall accumalation (ecmwf)

96hr rainfall accumalation (ecmwf)

Additional the landslide and rainfall warning threshold has been lowered due to the ground being loosed in due to the quake.

At this time 42 people have been killed since Thursday due to the earthquake.

More than 1,000 people have been treated for injuries in hospital. Doctors and nurses from other prefectures have been sent to the shelters in the quake-hit area to treat the injured. At one point over 200,000 people were in shelters.

Daily update- Monday, April 18, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 18 APR

NWPAC outlook, 18 APR

Conditions improve a bit over most of the north region as the unsettled weather rolls into the central region. More heat is on the menu for the south region but temperatures are easing up slightly, while the tropics stay very quiet. 

NORTH

A vigorous spring storm system is moving eastward out into the Pacific east of Japan today. Another weaker, and rather dry, storm system is moving through northern China as well. Clouds and showers associated with these storm systems will affect parts of eastern Russia, Korea, and Japan through the day. Conditions across the remainder of the north region are improving as high pressure builds into the region behind the two weather systems. Temperatures remain quite warm, but are closer to climatological levels now that we have progressed through the mid-month of April.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 10 (50) -2 (28) Cloudy
Vladivostok 11 (52) -1 (30) Scattered Showers
Beijing 22 (72) 7 (45) Fair
Seoul 19 (66) 5 (41) Periods of Rain
Tokyo 21 (70) 13 (55) Periods of Rain
Xi’an 28 (82) 10 (50) Fair
Shanghai 21 (70) 11 (52) Partly Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

A frontal system associated with the strong storm system moving east of Japan is slowly edging to the southeast across the central region today. Clouds and rain are in store for the entire coast of southeastern China and Taiwan, with a few scattered thunderstorms possible for western China. The rest of the central region will see a nice, warm day with plenty of sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 22 (72) 11 (52) Sctd Thunderstorms
Hong Kong 26 (79) 21 (70) Scattered Showers
Taipei 20 (68) 17 (63) Periods of Rain
Iwo To 26 (79) 21 (70) Fair
Hanoi 26 (79) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

It’s another day of intensely hot and humid weather across the south region, but thankfully, temperatures are down a bit from last week’s hellish readings. Heat indices across much of the south region could reach 44C (111F), especially over interior locales of the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, and across all of Laos. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible across Singapore, but the rest of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 39 (102) 28 (82) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 35 (95) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Manila 36 (97) 26 (79) Fair
Davao City 35 (95) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 35 (95) 27 (81) Fair
Singapore 34 (93) 27 (81) Sctd Thunderstorms

 

 TROPICS 

The weather is very quiet across the tropics today, with nothing in the way of focused convection anywhere in the region. A few scattered showers are possible in parts of eastern and Western Micronesia, otherwise, the islands of the tropics will enjoy a sunny day with just a few clouds here and there.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 31 (88) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Yap 32 (90) 26 (79) Scattered Showers
Palau 31 (88) 27 (81) Fair
Chuuk 31 (88) 27 (81) Periods of Rain
Pohnpei 32 (90) 27 (81) Scattered Showers
Majuro 28 (82) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Wake 26 (79) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth