Archive | April, 2016

Kumamoto and Earthquake Hit Area Forecast

Tremors continue across Western Japan at the start of the work week today forcing already weak structures to collapse and loosened ground to slide.

 13010648_1155329401168150_5235594055019502406_n

From a weather standpoint the loose ground combined with heavy rains on Saturday pushed several hill sides to the breaking point resulting in massive land and mudslides.

Over 50 were reported in the area with the largest washing out a suspension bridge and damaging homes.

 

Today the weather is much better with light rain in the morning but clearing by the afternoon in Kumamoto.  The biggest impact from weather in to Tuesday will be cool temperatures through the night hours. With many people staying outside due to fear of aftershocks many will be dangerously cold as temperatures drop to just 7C in to Tuesday morning in Kumamoto.

3day

Good news is that sunnier skies during the day should dominate through Wednesday, but by Thursday another low pressure area moving in out of China will bring an additional bout of rainfall to the quake effected region. More landslides are possible when this occurs, albeit the rainfall should not be as intense as Saturdays the threat is still there.

 

96hr rainfall accumalation (ecmwf)

96hr rainfall accumalation (ecmwf)

Additional the landslide and rainfall warning threshold has been lowered due to the ground being loosed in due to the quake.

At this time 42 people have been killed since Thursday due to the earthquake.

More than 1,000 people have been treated for injuries in hospital. Doctors and nurses from other prefectures have been sent to the shelters in the quake-hit area to treat the injured. At one point over 200,000 people were in shelters.

Daily update- Monday, April 18, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 18 APR

NWPAC outlook, 18 APR

Conditions improve a bit over most of the north region as the unsettled weather rolls into the central region. More heat is on the menu for the south region but temperatures are easing up slightly, while the tropics stay very quiet. 

NORTH

A vigorous spring storm system is moving eastward out into the Pacific east of Japan today. Another weaker, and rather dry, storm system is moving through northern China as well. Clouds and showers associated with these storm systems will affect parts of eastern Russia, Korea, and Japan through the day. Conditions across the remainder of the north region are improving as high pressure builds into the region behind the two weather systems. Temperatures remain quite warm, but are closer to climatological levels now that we have progressed through the mid-month of April.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 10 (50) -2 (28) Cloudy
Vladivostok 11 (52) -1 (30) Scattered Showers
Beijing 22 (72) 7 (45) Fair
Seoul 19 (66) 5 (41) Periods of Rain
Tokyo 21 (70) 13 (55) Periods of Rain
Xi’an 28 (82) 10 (50) Fair
Shanghai 21 (70) 11 (52) Partly Cloudy

 

CENTRAL

A frontal system associated with the strong storm system moving east of Japan is slowly edging to the southeast across the central region today. Clouds and rain are in store for the entire coast of southeastern China and Taiwan, with a few scattered thunderstorms possible for western China. The rest of the central region will see a nice, warm day with plenty of sunshine.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Kunming 22 (72) 11 (52) Sctd Thunderstorms
Hong Kong 26 (79) 21 (70) Scattered Showers
Taipei 20 (68) 17 (63) Periods of Rain
Iwo To 26 (79) 21 (70) Fair
Hanoi 26 (79) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy

 

 SOUTH

It’s another day of intensely hot and humid weather across the south region, but thankfully, temperatures are down a bit from last week’s hellish readings. Heat indices across much of the south region could reach 44C (111F), especially over interior locales of the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, and across all of Laos. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible across Singapore, but the rest of the region will see plenty of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Siem Reap 39 (102) 28 (82) Fair
Ho Chi Minh 35 (95) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Manila 36 (97) 26 (79) Fair
Davao City 35 (95) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy
Brunei 35 (95) 27 (81) Fair
Singapore 34 (93) 27 (81) Sctd Thunderstorms

 

 TROPICS 

The weather is very quiet across the tropics today, with nothing in the way of focused convection anywhere in the region. A few scattered showers are possible in parts of eastern and Western Micronesia, otherwise, the islands of the tropics will enjoy a sunny day with just a few clouds here and there.

City High Temp C (F) Low Temp C (F) Conditions
Guam 31 (88) 26 (79) Partly Cloudy
Yap 32 (90) 26 (79) Scattered Showers
Palau 31 (88) 27 (81) Fair
Chuuk 31 (88) 27 (81) Periods of Rain
Pohnpei 32 (90) 27 (81) Scattered Showers
Majuro 28 (82) 27 (81) Partly Cloudy
Wake 26 (79) 24 (75) Partly Cloudy

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

Weekend update- April 16/17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 16/17 APR

NWPAC outlook, 16/17 APR

Unsettled weather slides across parts of the north and central regions this weekend as the seasonal East Asian monsoon starts to get better established. In the south region, more intense heat is on tap for this weekend, while it stays hot, but quiet, in the tropics.

NORTH

The seasonal “plum rains” associated with the developing East Asian Monsoon, also known as 梅雨, or méiyǔ in Chinese; 梅雨, tsuyu, or baiu in Japanese; 장마, or jangma in Korean, and затяжные, or zatyazhnie in Russian, is starting to become more of a fixture across eastern Asia as one ripple after another of cold air comes down from Siberia and slams into the warm, tropical air starting to edge northward into the region. The latest pulse of energy will work its way out of the central region and slide along the eastern seaboard of China, through Korea, and into the Sea of Japan this weekend. Clouds and showers will be on tap for eastern China, Korea, eastern Russia, and much of Japan through Sunday.  Temperatures are still quite cold in Mongolia, where snow showers have fallen for the past 24 hours, but go up quickly as you travel south. Just about everyone will see a bit of rain this weekend, with the exception of north-central China, where partly cloudy skies will prevail.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Ulaanbaatar 3 (37) 4 (39) Snow Sh/Pt Cloudy
Vladivostok 9 (48) 10 (50) Rain/Rain
Beijing 22 (72) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Seoul 22 (72) 14 (57) Rain/Sct Showers
Tokyo 19 (66) 20 (68) Partly Cloudy/Rain
Xi’an 23 (73) 22 (72) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy
Shanghai 23 (73) 21 (70) Sct Showers/Fair

 

CENTRAL

The seasonal “plum rains” associated with the developing East Asian Monsoon, also known as 梅雨, or méiyǔ in Chinese; 梅雨, tsuyu, or baiu in Japanese; 장마, or jangma in Korean, and затяжные, or zatyazhnie in Russian, are even more prevalent in the central region, where the clash between the seasons is taking place as hot, tropical air migrates slowly northward to clash with incoming cooler air from northerly latitudes. Another clash will spawn off a storm system that will slide out of the northeastern portion of the central region this weekend, but most of the energy will be to the north, so only clouds and few light showers are on tap for coastal locations of the central region. A pulse of cooler air will roll through the western deserts and high country, cooling off temperatures a bit, while tropical heat settles into parts of southern china and northern Vietnam.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Kunming 27 (81) 20 (68) Pt Cloudy/Sct T-Stm
Hong Kong 27 (81) 27 (81) Ptly Cloudy/Cloudy
Taipei 29 (84) 24 (75) Ptly Cloudy/Cloudy
Iwo To 24 (75) 21 (70) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Hanoi 34 (93) 32 (90) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy

 

SOUTH

Intense heat continues across the south region, and whereas the temperatures will remain elevated until the onset of the seasonal Southeast Asian monsoon, it would appear that levels will start to decrease ever so slowly over the coming days into a more bearable level. Average temperatures across the region will settle in at around 36C (97F) this weekend, which is still darn hot by anyone’s standards. Interior locations of the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand will see the hottest weather, with heat indices nearing 47C (117F) in some spots. Rainfall will be relegated to the most southerly locations within the region, affecting Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore, while everyone else sees lots of sunshine and just a few scattered clouds.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Siem Reap 40 (104) 40 (104) Fair/Partly Cloudy
Ho Chi Minh 36 (97) 36 (97) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy
Manila 36 (97) 35 (95) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Davao City 35 (95) 34 (93) Pt Cloudy/Pt Cloudy
Brunei 33 (91) 34 (93) Sct T-storms/Fair
Singapore 34 (93) 34 (93) Sct T-storm/T-storm

 

TROPICS

The tropics are still very quiet, and we expect the region to stay that way for the foreseeable future. The I.T.C.Z. (inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) is still quite depressed, in terms of activity and location, and while SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) continue to exist in the favorable zone, there is a profound lack of convergence or deep moisture within the region. Expect more of the same this weekend, with a weak ripple of energy located out near the eastern islands of Micronesia, and another pulse moving through western Micronesia. The remainder of the region will see lots of bright, warm sunshine for beach activities.

City Sat. High C (F) Sun. High C (F) Conditions (Sat/Sun)
Guam 31 (88) 31 (88) Ptly Cloudy/Ptly Cloudy
Yap 33 (91) 33 (91) Partly Cloudy/Fair
Palau 31 (88) 31 (88) Rain/Partly Cloudy
Chuuk 31 (88) 31 (88) Fair/Fair
Pohnpei 31 (88) 29 (84) Sctd Shwrs/Sctd Shwrs
Majuro 28 (82) 28 (82) Ptly Cloudy/Ptly Cloudy
Wake 26 (79) 26 (79) Ptly Cloudy/Ptly Cloudy

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Predictions

2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Predictions 

It’s that time of the year again!! Time for us to step out on the proverbial “limb”, and give our predictions for the upcoming 2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season! Four guys from Westernpacificweather.com will do our best to see if we can accurately predict the level of activity in the upcoming season, AND tell you why we think what we do! 

First, let’s get right to the NUMBERS, because that’s what you really came for!

Forecaster

Name

Tropical

Storms

Typhoons

Super

Typhoons

Rob Speta

24

14

6

Mike Adcock

24

11

3

Patrick Malejana

22

12

4

Michael Williams

21

10

4

WPACWX.com Average

23

12

4

 

Let’s see how the guys break down the 2016 Pacific Typhoon Season…

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 By: Meteorologist Robert Speta

The 2016 Typhoon Season is upon us and this season looks like things could be dialed back a bit from 2015 where records were shattered from January to the end of the Tropical Season.

A return to the normal in some ways but in others we might see some oddities.

My forecast reasoning is based upon historical El-Nino events combined with the general weather pattern in the past decade with above average Sea Surface Temperatures dominating the oceans due to global warming.

 Tropical Storms 24

Typhoons 14

Super Typhoons 6

Reasoning

 In years past following a strong El Nino year we typically see a lull in the tropics during the first half of the following season. This year this has remained true with no named tropical systems in the first 3 months of 2016. This is mainly due to the big troughs dipping down out of the Polar Regions ushering in a vast amount of wind shear in the tropics.

Despite this the second half of the seasons typically bring in more than average typhoons and super Typhoons as the shear lets up and above average sea surface temperatures reign. Furthermore the trend in the western Pacific has been above average super typhoons almost to the point where we may need to change our definition on what is an “average” Super Typhoon season.

Thus my forecast is slightly below average considering the slow start to the season. But expect an active second half of the year with a near normal amount of Super Typhoons.

As noted in more seasonal outlooks this is basically an educated guess. Last year’s season surprised even the most experienced forecasters. It would be little to no surprise to me if this year was the same.

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 By: Meteorologist Mike Adcock

 The 2016 Western Pacific Typhoon Season should take a leisurely pace compared to 2015.  The key difference will be an ending El Nino and a possible shift toward La Nina by the end of the year.

2016 should feature a later-than-normal start with the first tropical cyclone developing toward late June or early July.  With the delayed start, peak activity will quickly occur by late August and into September, before declining again toward the end of the year.  Further, with the declining El Nino, I expect the mean development point to shift significantly west compared to the paast two season.  This increases the landfall threat to the Philippines, Taiwan, China, and Vietnam.  Because of the shortened development wind between formation and landfall, the raw number of typhoons and super typhoon should significantly decrease.  Regardless of strength of storm, the latter part of the year should yield much needed moisture to the southwestern portion of the basin (i.e. Philippines and in the vicinity of the South China Sea). 

Tropical Storms – 24

Typhoons – 11

Super Typhoons – 3 

Reasoning

The starting point for the forecast are the years following major El Nino events–namely 1998, 1983, and 1973.  These years resulted in 23-27 tropical storms, 9-12 typhoons, and 2-4 super typhoons.

With the El Nino ending, water temperatures and shear across the Pacific should favor tropical cyclone formation further west.  Also, 2016 follows a significantly active Central Pacific Hurricane Season where records were shattered left and right.  Much like a pendulum, we should see the Central Pacific shift back to near-normal activity, essentially eliminating the risk of cyclones entering the Western Pacific from the Central Pacific.

Further, as the mean development point moves westward, this will reduce the risk of tropical cyclones re-curving northward along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.  As more tropical cyclones make landfall in the Philippines and the Indochina Peninsula, the risk of recurvature lowers.  With more landfalls and a western development region, the number of typhoons and super typhoons will drop significantly compared to 2015’s eastern development region. 

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 By: Weathercaster Patrick Malejana 

My forecast for the 2016 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season is for average or slightly below-normal activity. My forecast reasoning hinges on the continued weakening of the El Nino state this year and a possible move towards a La Nina Phase by the latter part of 2016. Numerous recent analogs for this transition include the years 1998, 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2011 which were characterized as having weak to moderate La Nina based on the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). These years also featured normal to slightly below-normal activity with 2010 being the least active season on record. 

With that said, this year’s Typhoon Season should slowly pick up in the next few months with high activity likely occurring during the climatological peak between July and October. The following are my personal forecast for the 2016 Typhoon Season:

Tropical Storms – 22

Typhoons – 12

Super Typhoon – 4 

==================================================================

 By: Weathercaster Michael Williams

 When thinking about the upcoming Pacific Typhoon Season, I think one must consider the effect of the waning V.S.E. (Very Strong El Nino) event of the past 18 months. In doing so, I felt it was wise to simply go back to the last V.S.E. events, and see what the circumstances were in those seasons. It’s not really scientific, but it does share some interesting insights into how the season progresses following a V.S.E. 

The last 2 V.S.E. events took place in 1982-83, and again in 1997-98. The 82-83 event was more similar to the 2015-16 V.S.E. that is currently fading. It should be noted that the 1983 typhoon season was a busy one, and I’ll get to those numbers in a moment. The 1998 typhoon season was also busy, but the numbers did not outpace climatological norms by very much, so it was rather unremarkable in that respect.

However, there are significant comparisons and similarities between the two seasons:

  1. 1983 saw 32 TD’s; 23 TS’s; 10 TY’s; and 4 STY’s. 1998 saw 27 TD’s; 18 TS’s; 9 TY’s; and 3 STY’s.
  2. Both seasons got off to a late start, with a June start in 1983, and 1998 setting the record for the latest start of a Pacific Typhoon Season on July 6.
  3. Both seasons saw early impacts in the north, however, 1983 saw a significantly greater number of early storms in and near the Philippines.
  4. Both seasons saw significant late-season action in the South China Sea, with Vietnam being the most affected.
  5. Both seasons were relatively short seasons. In an environment that usually sees an 8-9 month-long season, 1983 was 7 months long, and 1998 was an amazingly short 6 months long.

My prediction for the 2016 Pacific Typhoon Season

I can’t pretend to be very scientific in my prediction. I am simply going to follow along with the averages, given the current state that the atmosphere is in. Once again, we are on the downhill side of the V.S.E. event similar to the 1982-83 event, so my estimations are going to lay a bit north of the average. By the numbers:

1      I think we will see 30 TD’s; 21 TS’s; 10 TY’s; and 4 STY’s in the 2016 Pacific Typhoon Season.

2      I think we will see another late start to the season, coming in mid-late June (15-30).

3      I think early activity will impact the Philippines and Japan, with China catching up in the middle months,  and Vietnam getting in on things in the latter months of the season.

Of course it would be impossible to give numbers of SPECIFIC locations that the storms might hit, because that is simply not possible in that sense at this time. But, the seasons with a V.S.E. event in decline have thus far proven to be busy for more southerly locations within the overall region, and I think this season will be no exception.

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Here’s a little bit about each of the prognosticators:

RobSpet

Meteorologist Robert Speta is a Broadcast/Operational Meteorologist and the creator of westernpacificweather.com. He has eight years of Operational Meteorology experience in the United States Navy and is currently on air casting the weather for international news network NHK World. Robert is also a member of the American Meteorological Society.

 

 

 

mike a-smallMeteorologist Mike Adcock is an Operational Meteorologist with 13 years of experience in the United States Air Force.  During that time, Mike has forecasted weather in six of seven continents with a focus on aviation meteorology.  Currently, he is working toward a BS Geosciences degree from Mississippi State.  Mike has also been a member of the American Meteorological Society since December 2010.

 

 

PatMal

WeatherCaster Patrick Malejana is based in Long Island, NY where he is working as an Operations Administrator with a private jet charter company.  Pat lived in the Philippines for 15 years and frequent typhoons hitting the country got him interested with meteorology. Pat has a B.S. in Aerospace Systems Technology.

 

 

 

MEW at DZRJ small

WeatherCaster Michael Williams is a long-time veteran of radio, where he has been a news director and anchor for several stations for the majority of his career. Being born in the sub-tropical region of the USA, Michael became interested in tropical weather at a very early age, spending many years in self-study of tropical cyclones and related phenomena. Now living in the Philippines, Michael lends his talents in public information delivery to the website and on Facebook for residents of the Western Pacific.

 

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DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.
USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com