Daily update- Monday, May 2, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 02 MAY

Parts of the north region cool down after a very warm weekend, while unsettled weather continues across the central region. The heat is back on in the south following a weekend of rainy relief, and the tropics are heating up and starting to show a light resurgence. 

NORTH

A storm system moving through the north region is bringing down the temperatures significantly, as compared to the record-setting warmth of the past weekend. Rain-cooled temperatures will struggle to reach 20C (68F) today across Beijing, where weekend highs were at a record-setting 30C (86F). The current storm system will slide eastward across the region today, bringing clouds, rain and a few thunderstorms to most of eastern Russia, eastern China, and Korea, with increasing clouds across Japan through the day. Locations to the west and north will also see cooler temperatures today, with just a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

The monsoon front is setting up well across the central region, as a train of weather systems from the west slide along the boundary between the very warm tropical air that is trying to work its way to the north, and the cooler continental air mass that has dominated the entire WPAC for the past 5-6 months. Fortunately, the latest pulse of energy has moved to the north of the central region, with only the easternmost locales seeing any chance for precipitation as a few scattered thunderstorms could pop up is southeastern China and Taiwan. Naha will see increasing clouds through the day as the impulse slides eastward, well to the north, but drags a bit of energy through the area in the next 24 hours. The remainder of the region will see a nice, warm day ahead, with lots of sunshine.

 SOUTH 

After a weekend of clouds and showers providing some relief to interior portions of Southeast Asia, the heat is ramping back up over the region under mostly clear skies. Shower and thunderstorm activity will once again be pushed to the south and west as tropical moisture moves westward through Malaysia and Singapore, and also through the southern Philippines.

 TROPICS 

The tropics are showing a slow turn towards a more active profile as we enter the month of May. Data shows that baseline conditions are quite favorable for development with high SST’s and low wind shear over the region. However, in the eastern half of the region, repeated impulses of weak, dry energy have been sliding down from the northwest and mixing in with the moisture below 10 degrees north latitude, and this has been drying out the overall profile of the atmosphere, which in short, is just not supplying enough fuel for the engine to get started. The song will remain the same according to long-range computer model forecasts, with no development expected. A few weak pulses of energy are drifting along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) today with one located between the Marshall Islands and eastern Micronesia, and second, very broad, area of convergence rolling through the remainder of Micronesia, a third wave bringing much-needed rainfall to the southern Philippines, and a final wave abut to exit the region to the west near Malaysia and Singapore.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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