Daily update- Tuesday, May 3, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 03 MAY

A strong spring storm slides through the north region and shares some of the energy with parts of the central region. Seasonal heat and humidity takes over in the south as the tropic region very slowly gets it act together. 

NORTH

A very strong spring storm system is rolling through eastern Asia today, en route to Japan by tomorrow. Parts of northeastern China, eastern Russia, and the Korean peninsula will see strong winds and occasionally heavy rain with the system as it moves to the east. Although Japan will get through today with no problems, it will start going downhill tonight as the system moves into the nation. For more on this spring storm system, check out Rob’s in-depth report. Elsewhere, with the majority of the energy located in the east, most of the north region is in a fairly stable weather situation today, with warm temperatures and sunny to partly cloudy skies.

CENTRAL

A cold front extending down from the strong spring storm system in the north region will bring a good chance for scattered thunderstorms across parts of southeastern China, and possible strong storms over eastern China, Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Islands. Moisture feeding into the system from the southwest is traversing southern China and northern Vietnam, helping fuel afternoon thunderstorms there as well. Temperatures are no surprise and will be seasonably warm across the region.

 SOUTH

It’s still quite hot in the south region, but we are far from the ridiculous numbers of April. Hottest locations will once again be parts of interior Indochina, and inland areas of the northern Philippines. Tropical moisture is settling into the region firmly, and the southern two-thirds of the region will see a good chance for showers or thunderstorms as weak tropical energy slides through.

 TROPICS 

Activity in the tropics appears to be taking a slow, gradual upward trend, which is climatologically normal, really, so it should not shock many. But, following the record season last year, in which we had already seen our 6^th named storm, and were watching the development of our 7^th taking shape at this point of the year, it has been utterly dead out there. SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) are quite favorable, and increasing…overall, VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) is rather favorable…and moisture is in place, but is still depressed in terms of latitude, being relegated to areas below about 8 degrees north latitude. Although it’s not unheard of for systems to form below 5 degrees north latitude, it’s certainly a rarity early in a season’s development, due to weak Corliolis forces and a lack of sufficient wind convergence near the equator. All of this is resulting in a rather benign scenario for tropical development. All that being said, we see very little in the way of organized activity out there right now with just weak pulses of energy sliding along the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). One trough extends to the southeast out of the eastern islands of Micronesia; a second is draped in a NE to SW configuration from the same point of origin near Chuuk. A third is moving out of the southern Philippines, and the last is moving out of the WPAC near Malaysia. These impulses will bring showers and thunderstorms to these locations, while everyone else enjoys a warm, sunny day.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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