Daily update- Wednesday, May 4, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 04 MAY

A strong spring storm continues to push through the north and central regions with windy conditions and strong thunderstorms. The south remains hot and humid, but the worst of the summer season may have passed. The tropics are still relatively quiet, but are slowly ramping up for what could be a big year. 

NORTH

A strong spring storm system that hammered parts of eastern China, Korea, and Japan over the past 24 hours is slowly trekking across northeastern China today, with the very active frontal boundary out ahead of the parent low pressure area by some 400 km. This squall line has passed through southern and central Japan, and will affect the northern island of Hokkaido through the day. The parent low is spinning over eastern Russia, bringing clouds to that area, and is helping pump down some colder air over Mongolia, where temperatures have nose-dived and snow is falling. Record warmth has come back to parts of interior western China, but thankfully, humidity levels are low, so it’s just hot, and not dangerously hot. The remainder of the region will see a warm and sunny day with just a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

Energy associated with the storm system in the north region will extend to the south into parts of the central region as well, particularly offshore of mainland China in Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands. Since the bulk of the energy has migrated well to the east, the worst we will get is a few showers and some clouds. The moisture feed extends to the southwest into southern China and northern Vietnam, where a pulse of weak energy will help stir the moisture up into a few thunderstorms as the air heats up. The rest of the region ill see a typical warm spring day with sunshine and scattered clouds.

 SOUTH 

Summertime heat is still well in place over the south, but it would appear that the worst is over for this season, as afternoon highs level off about 3-5C (5-9F) lower than in recent weeks. Even so, temperatures are still blistering hot, and heat indices will approach dangerous levels in some areas, so caution is advised if you have outdoor activities planned in Cambodia, Laos, or interior portions of Thailand, Vietnam, and the northern Philippines. Heat indices could approach 42C (108F) in many of these locations. Moisture is plentiful across the region, so with daytime heating, and some orographic help, thunderstorms will pop up across some parts of Indochina and the Philippines today, bringing some much-needed relief to some spots. Coverage will be isolated however, so no widespread relief is in sight for now. Aside from a few thunderstorms in Brunei and Indonesia, the remainder of the region will see a hot, sunny day today.

 TROPICS 

Activity in the tropics is showing early-season signs off ebb and flow, as weak impulses flare up in the convergence zone and then peter out in the drier air shortly afterwards. Although activity is slowly ramping up, and I DO mean S-L-O-W-L-Y, nothing of real consequence is out there or on the foreseeable horizon. One pulse of energy is moving out of the Philippines and into Indonesia and Brunei, while a second, weak ripple is passing to the south of western Micronesia. A third wave is tracking westward over eastern Micronesia, as a final pulse of energy moves into the Marshall Islands far to the east. The abundance of scattered energy in the region means that just about anyone could see a shower or thunderstorms today, but development will be isolated and local. If you don’t see a shower, then look forward to a hot, sunny, and tropical day.

Have a way-out Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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