Daily update- Tuesday, May 10, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 10 MAY

A new storm system brings rain to the north and central regions as the heat keeps chugging along in the south. The tropics are slowly but surely reminding us that all eyes will have to start peering out there more regularly in the very near future. 

NORTH

A strong storm system is pushing through eastern China and Korea today, with Japan on target for tomorrow. This system has brought along its share of hazardous weather, mostly in the form of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding in parts of China. Eastern China should see some clearing this afternoon as the storm departs the area, while Korea stays under the gun all day, and conditions slowly deteriorate over Japan.  A shot of cold air is making its way into the extreme northern portion of the region, where Mongolia will see a significant drop in temperatures and a chance for snow over the next 24-36 hours. Very warm temperatures are in place over interior parts of China, with readings in the mid-30’s (mid 90’s F) and sunny skies.

CENTRAL

A strong frontal system extends down to the south and west from a hearty storm system to the north, sliding across southeastern China slowly as the parent low to the north migrates eastward. This frontal system has fired off some very heavy rain over portions of Fujian province in southeastern China, where a landslide killed more than 40 people. For more on this story, please read our earlier report by Robert Speta. The front will bring general cloudiness to the eastern half of the central region today, as the eastward-moving front fires off a round of thunderstorms along its path as we get some more atmospheric lifting from the afternoon heat. To the south and west, only a few clouds will dot the skies as temperatures get up to normal levels.

SOUTH 

Once again, the big story in the south is the heat, which will just not relent across the region, especially over Indochina. We won’t approach the 40-ish (100-ish F) temperatures we were seeing last month, but upper 30’s (near 100 F) will be prevalent, especially over interior portions of the Southeast Asian peninsula and the northern Philippines. Combining the heat with the humidity gives us very dangerous heat indices, approaching 44C (111 F), across these areas, so extreme caution is advised for anyone considering outdoor activities. The humidity is helping fuel development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the more southerly, tropical locales of the southern Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, and Singapore.

 TROPICS 

Although significant development in the tropics is out of the question right now, I find it interesting to watch the slow, steady, day-to-day development of the tropical zone. SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) continue to edge slowly upwards, aided by a general lack of cloud-cover in the tropical region overall. Convergence continues to increase, ever-so-slowly across the region, with tangible, visible improvement of the I.T.C.Z. (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) structure with each passing day. Weak waves of energy are wisping up for a few days, and then fading away, but each one seems to be getting slightly stronger as we progress towards the climatological start of the tropical season in the northern hemisphere. Today, we have two fairly palpable easterly waves, with one sliding through southern parts of the Philippines and the western islands of Micronesia, and a second ripple to the east near Chuuk Island. A third, weaker, wave is moving through the Marshall Islands as well. All locations within the region will see a good chance for showers or thunderstorms today, but since a general drought exists across the region, the rains are very welcome.

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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