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Archive | May 11, 2016

SOMETHING STARTS TO SPARK IN THE TROPICS, BAY OF BENGAL STORM POSSIBLE

May 11, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

A area of convection in the tropics is looking more and more like it could become our named tropical storm system in the Eastern Hemisphere this coming weekend in to next week.

Thing is it is not in the Western Pacific, but a little further west in the Bay of Bengal. Here moisture from the south west monsoon is starting to surge northward increasing the threat of developing systems along the leading edge of the monsoonal belt.

IR SAT

At this time the area of convection in question can be seen just south east of Sri Lanka. No agencies are really discussing it at this time but numerical models are really pulling towards something developing.

The GFS shown below has a storm developing and moving just east of Sri Lanka early next week before tracking north towards Bangledesh. I would think this scenario more likely given the placement of the monsoon at this time.

GFS TUE, MAY 17th OUTLOOK

The ECMWF takes the low a little further west per the latest model guidance tracking over Sri Lanka early next week before moving across southern India. In this scenario Sri Lanka could be under a flood threat.

ECMWF OUTLOOK

The reality is this is still a ways off and we are still watching the area of convection for its eventual development. Pending on where it does and when will determine what numerical guidance could be making the right call at this time.

As far as tropics in the Westpac, not much going on at all. In fact we are in one of the longest running tropical droughts in the basins recorded history (1950).

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Daily update- Wednesday, May 11, 2016

May 11, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 11 MAY

A pair of storms systems roll through the north region, and one of them is bringing winter back to some areas. Conditions are improving over the central region, while the south finally gets in on some rainfall relief action as the heat keeps dancing to the beat. The tropics are like a Frankenstein slowly charging up with each bolt of lightning…still sleeping, but when it finally wakes up, watch out!

NORTH

The north is a story of contrasts today, as a shot of very cold air moves into the northernmost reaches of the region, bringing a taste of winter back to Mongolia and portions of northern China. Strong warm air advection is in place out ahead of the frontal system, with very warm temperatures over central China. There will be a 33C (60F) DIFFERENCE in temperatures between Xi’an, China, and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, covering a distance of 1538 km (956 mi). This strong air mass contrast is helping fire off plentiful showers and thunderstorms activity along the front, with precipitation changing over to snow in the northernmost locales as the colder air settles in. To the east, our latest strong spring storm system is making its way through Japan today, bringing some clouds and showers to the archipelago. Conditions should start to improve late this afternoon and through the evening as the front clears the area and high pressure starts to build in.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	4	-6	39	21	Snow showers
Vladivostok	17	5	63	41	Mostly sunny
Beijing	29	18	84	64	Mostly cloudy
Seoul	22	11	72	52	Mostly sunny
Tokyo	24	17	75	63	AM showers/PM clearing
Xi’an	37	23	99	73	Mostly sunny
Shanghai	25	15	77	59	Mostly sunny

CENTRAL

Conditions are improving over most of the central region as the seasonal East Asian monsoon, also called méiyǔ, or plum rains, takes a short break prior to the next round of energy coming through. The Ryukyu Islands will see the tail-end of a frontal system pass through today, and the weather should start to improve quickly once the front passes. Everyone else will see a mix of sun and clouds and warm afternoon temperatures.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	28	14	82	57	Mostly sunny
Hong Kong	30	25	86	77	Mostly sunny
Taipei	24	21	75	70	Partly cloudy
Naha	24	22	75	72	AM periods of rain/PM clearing
Hanoi	29	24	84	75	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

The heat remains settled in over the south region, and temperatures will once again approach very highs levels, and combined with the humidity, will present some very hazardous heat indices across interior portions of the Southeast Asian peninsula and the northern Philippines. The aforementioned humidity is helping provide moisture for the afternoon heat to lift up into the atmosphere and squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms in spots, a much-welcome relief for many. Just about everyone stands a chance to see an afternoon thunderstorm today, with chances less likely over the northern Philippines.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	38	26	100	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Ho Chi Minh	36	28	97	82	Thunderstorms likely
Manila	37	26	99	79	Partly cloudy
Davao City	33	26	91	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Brunei	33	26	91	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Singapore	33	27	91	81	Thunderstorms likely

TROPICS

Like a bear waking up from its long, winter slumber, the tropics continue to stir ever so slowly. We still have no suspect areas to watch out there, but long-range models hint that activity will continue to ramp up slowly over the next few weeks, with continued propagation of easterly waves through the region, each one growing ever slightly stronger than the previous. Today, there is a scattered mess of tropical wave activity throughout the region, and this will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to just about any location within the region.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	32	27	90	81	Partly cloudy
Yap	32	26	90	79	Mostly cloudy
Palau	30	27	86	81	Thunderstorms likely
Chuuk	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms likely
Pohnpei	31	24	88	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Majuro	28	27	82	81	Thunderstorms likely
Wake	26	25	79	77	Scattered showers

Have a way-out Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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