NWPAC outlook, 11 MAY
A pair of storms systems roll through the north region, and one of them is bringing winter back to some areas. Conditions are improving over the central region, while the south finally gets in on some rainfall relief action as the heat keeps dancing to the beat. The tropics are like a Frankenstein slowly charging up with each bolt of lightning…still sleeping, but when it finally wakes up, watch out!
NORTH
The north is a story of contrasts today, as a shot of very cold air moves into the northernmost reaches of the region, bringing a taste of winter back to Mongolia and portions of northern China. Strong warm air advection is in place out ahead of the frontal system, with very warm temperatures over central China. There will be a 33C (60F) DIFFERENCE in temperatures between Xi’an, China, and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, covering a distance of 1538 km (956 mi). This strong air mass contrast is helping fire off plentiful showers and thunderstorms activity along the front, with precipitation changing over to snow in the northernmost locales as the colder air settles in. To the east, our latest strong spring storm system is making its way through Japan today, bringing some clouds and showers to the archipelago. Conditions should start to improve late this afternoon and through the evening as the front clears the area and high pressure starts to build in.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Ulaanbaatar |
4
|
-6 |
39 |
21 |
Snow showers
|
| Vladivostok |
17
|
5 |
63 |
41 |
Mostly sunny
|
| Beijing |
29
|
18 |
84 |
64 |
Mostly cloudy
|
| Seoul |
22
|
11 |
72 |
52 |
Mostly sunny
|
| Tokyo |
24
|
17 |
75 |
63 |
AM showers/PM clearing
|
| Xi’an |
37
|
23 |
99 |
73 |
Mostly sunny
|
| Shanghai |
25
|
15 |
77 |
59 |
Mostly sunny
|
CENTRAL
Conditions are improving over most of the central region as the seasonal East Asian monsoon, also called méiyǔ, or plum rains, takes a short break prior to the next round of energy coming through. The Ryukyu Islands will see the tail-end of a frontal system pass through today, and the weather should start to improve quickly once the front passes. Everyone else will see a mix of sun and clouds and warm afternoon temperatures.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Kunming |
28
|
14 |
82 |
57 |
Mostly sunny
|
| Hong Kong |
30
|
25 |
86 |
77 |
Mostly sunny
|
| Taipei |
24
|
21 |
75 |
70 |
Partly cloudy
|
| Naha |
24
|
22 |
75 |
72 |
AM periods of rain/PM clearing
|
| Hanoi |
29
|
24 |
84 |
75 |
Partly cloudy
|
SOUTH
The heat remains settled in over the south region, and temperatures will once again approach very highs levels, and combined with the humidity, will present some very hazardous heat indices across interior portions of the Southeast Asian peninsula and the northern Philippines. The aforementioned humidity is helping provide moisture for the afternoon heat to lift up into the atmosphere and squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms in spots, a much-welcome relief for many. Just about everyone stands a chance to see an afternoon thunderstorm today, with chances less likely over the northern Philippines.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Siem Reap |
38
|
26 |
100 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Ho Chi Minh |
36
|
28 |
97 |
82 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Manila |
37
|
26 |
99 |
79 |
Partly cloudy
|
| Davao City |
33
|
26 |
91 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Brunei |
33
|
26 |
91 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Singapore |
33
|
27 |
91 |
81 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
TROPICS
Like a bear waking up from its long, winter slumber, the tropics continue to stir ever so slowly. We still have no suspect areas to watch out there, but long-range models hint that activity will continue to ramp up slowly over the next few weeks, with continued propagation of easterly waves through the region, each one growing ever slightly stronger than the previous. Today, there is a scattered mess of tropical wave activity throughout the region, and this will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to just about any location within the region.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Guam |
32
|
27 |
90 |
81 |
Partly cloudy
|
| Yap |
32
|
26 |
90 |
79 |
Mostly cloudy
|
| Palau |
30
|
27 |
86 |
81 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Chuuk |
29
|
27 |
84 |
81 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Pohnpei |
31
|
24 |
88 |
75 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Majuro |
28
|
27 |
82 |
81 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Wake |
26 |
25 |
79 |
77 |
Scattered showers |
Have a way-out Wednesday!
Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth
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May 11, 2016 
