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Daily update- Wednesday, May 11, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 11 MAY

NWPAC outlook, 11 MAY

A pair of storms systems roll through the north region, and one of them is bringing winter back to some areas. Conditions are improving over the central region, while the south finally gets in on some rainfall relief action as the heat keeps dancing to the beat. The tropics are like a Frankenstein slowly charging up with each bolt of lightning…still sleeping, but when it finally wakes up, watch out! 

NORTH

The north is a story of contrasts today, as a shot of very cold air moves into the northernmost reaches of the region, bringing a taste of winter back to Mongolia and portions of northern China. Strong warm air advection is in place out ahead of the frontal system, with very warm temperatures over central China. There will be a 33C (60F) DIFFERENCE in temperatures between Xi’an, China, and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, covering a distance of 1538 km (956 mi). This strong air mass contrast is helping fire off plentiful showers and thunderstorms activity along the front, with precipitation changing over to snow in the northernmost locales as the colder air settles in. To the east, our latest strong spring storm system is making its way through Japan today, bringing some clouds and showers to the archipelago. Conditions should start to improve late this afternoon and through the evening as the front clears the area and high pressure starts to build in.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

4

-6 39 21

Snow showers

Vladivostok

17

5 63 41

Mostly sunny

Beijing

29

18 84 64

Mostly cloudy

Seoul

22

11 72 52

Mostly sunny

Tokyo

24

17 75 63

AM showers/PM clearing

Xi’an

37

23 99 73

Mostly sunny

Shanghai

25

15 77 59

Mostly sunny

 

CENTRAL

Conditions are improving over most of the central region as the seasonal East Asian monsoon, also called méiyǔ, or plum rains, takes a short break prior to the next round of energy coming through. The Ryukyu Islands will see the tail-end of a frontal system pass through today, and the weather should start to improve quickly once the front passes. Everyone else will see a mix of sun and clouds and warm afternoon temperatures.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

28

14 82 57

Mostly sunny

Hong Kong

30

25 86 77

Mostly sunny

Taipei

24

21 75 70

Partly cloudy

Naha

24

22 75 72

AM periods of rain/PM clearing

Hanoi

29

24 84 75

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH 

The heat remains settled in over the south region, and temperatures will once again approach very highs levels, and combined with the humidity, will present some very hazardous heat indices across interior portions of the Southeast Asian peninsula and the northern Philippines. The aforementioned humidity is helping provide moisture for the afternoon heat to lift up into the atmosphere and squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms in spots, a much-welcome relief for many. Just about everyone stands a chance to see an afternoon thunderstorm today, with chances less likely over the northern Philippines.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

38

26 100 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

36

28 97 82

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

37

26 99 79

Partly cloudy

Davao City

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

33

27 91 81

Thunderstorms likely

 

 TROPICS 

Like a bear waking up from its long, winter slumber, the tropics continue to stir ever so slowly. We still have no suspect areas to watch out there, but long-range models hint that activity will continue to ramp up slowly over the next few weeks, with continued propagation of easterly waves through the region, each one growing ever slightly stronger than the previous. Today, there is a scattered mess of tropical wave activity throughout the region, and this will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to just about any location within the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

27 90 81

Partly cloudy

Yap

32

26 90 79

Mostly cloudy

Palau

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake 26 25 79 77 Scattered showers

Have a way-out Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, MeteoEarth

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